What happens to gold when the Fed holds rates steady?
Since 1994, gold was higher 3 months after a Fed meeting with no rate change in 94 of 177 cases (53%), with a median move of +0.6% and an average of +1.2%. Over all 3-month periods since 1994, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +1.4%. The next day it was higher in 94 of 178 cases (median +0.1%).
Cases since 1994
178
Fed meetings with no change
After 1 day (median)
+0.1%
higher in 94 of 178
After 1 month (median)
+0.4%
higher in 95 of 178
After 3 months (median)
+0.6%
higher in 94 of 177
After 12 months (median)
+3.1%
higher in 101 of 173
Where things stand: The Fed's last rate change was on September 16, 2026: raised 0.25 pt to 3.75–4.00%. The next decision is due on Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 2:00 pm New York time.
Gold After Fed Meetings With No Change: Summary
Move from the close before the event. "All days" is every trading day since 1994, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 178 | 178 | 178 | 177 | 175 | 173 |
| Median | +0.1% | +0.1% | +0.4% | +0.6% | +2.1% | +3.1% |
| Average | +0.1% | 0.0% | +0.6% | +1.2% | +3.5% | +7.6% |
| Higher in | 53% (94/178) | 52% (92/178) | 53% (95/178) | 53% (94/177) | 61% (106/175) | 58% (101/173) |
| Best | +4.9% Sep 16, 2008 | +16.0% Sep 16, 2008 | +15.5% Jul 29, 2026 | +19.9% Jan 29, 2025 | +60.0% Jul 30, 2025 | +92.2% Jan 29, 2025 |
| Worst | −8.0% Mar 18, 2026 | −9.7% Aug 5, 2008 | −12.7% Mar 20, 2013 | −19.3% Aug 5, 2008 | −20.1% Jan 30, 2013 | −28.1% Dec 12, 2012 |
| All days: median | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +1.4% | +3.3% | +6.8% |
| All days: higher in | 52% | 53% | 53% | 58% | 62% | 66% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close before the event, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often gold was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Fed meetings with no change | 178 | +0.1% 53% up | +0.4% 53% up | +0.6% 53% up | +3.1% 58% up |
| Holds after a run of hikes | 61 | +0.5% 64% up | +0.7% 54% up | +0.8% 54% up | +3.1% 61% up |
| Holds after a run of cuts | 117 | −0.1% 47% up | +0.4% 53% up | +0.4% 53% up | +3.2% 57% up |
Every Case
Fed meetings with no change since 1994, newest first. Gold price is the close before the event (US dollars per ounce).
| Date | Decision | Gold before | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2026 | Held at 3.50–3.75% After cuts | $4,039 | +1.5% | +6.6% | +15.5% | — | — | — |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Held at 3.50–3.75% After cuts | $4,354 | −2.5% | −7.0% | −7.8% | +1.0% | — | — |
| Apr 29, 2026 | Held at 3.50–3.75% After cuts | $4,608 | +0.5% | +1.9% | −0.3% | −11.0% | — | — |
| Mar 18, 2026 | Held at 3.50–3.75% After cuts | $5,008 | −8.0% | −9.1% | −2.6% | −12.5% | −12.2% | — |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Held at 3.50–3.75% After cuts | $5,083 | +4.6% | −2.6% | +3.3% | −10.3% | −19.3% | — |
| Jul 30, 2025 | Held at 4.25–4.50% After cuts | $3,324 | −0.9% | +3.3% | +4.5% | +19.8% | +60.0% | +23.6% |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Held at 4.25–4.50% After cuts | $3,407 | −0.6% | −1.7% | −1.4% | +9.1% | +27.2% | +24.6% |
| May 7, 2025 | Held at 4.25–4.50% After cuts | $3,423 | −3.4% | −6.9% | −2.2% | +0.3% | +15.7% | +37.6% |
| Mar 19, 2025 | Held at 4.25–4.50% After cuts | $3,041 | +0.1% | −0.6% | +9.5% | +12.1% | +22.3% | +51.5% |
| Jan 29, 2025 | Held at 4.25–4.50% After cuts | $2,768 | +2.0% | +4.5% | +2.9% | +19.9% | +19.1% | +92.2% |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $2,405 | +3.2% | +1.1% | +6.5% | +15.6% | +17.4% | +36.9% |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $2,327 | −0.4% | +1.8% | +4.4% | +10.9% | +18.5% | +48.4% |
| May 1, 2024 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $2,303 | +0.3% | +0.8% | +0.9% | +7.7% | +21.6% | +40.8% |
| Mar 20, 2024 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $2,160 | +1.2% | +1.4% | +11.8% | +9.7% | +21.1% | +39.9% |
| Jan 31, 2024 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $2,032 | +1.9% | +1.0% | +3.2% | +13.8% | +22.1% | +38.4% |
| Dec 13, 2023 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $1,993 | +2.6% | +2.7% | +1.9% | +8.4% | +17.9% | +34.2% |
| Nov 1, 2023 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $1,994 | 0.0% | −1.8% | +2.2% | +3.9% | +15.8% | +37.9% |
| Sep 20, 2023 | Held at 5.25–5.50% After hikes | $1,954 | −0.7% | −3.2% | +1.4% | +4.4% | +10.6% | +33.8% |
| Jun 14, 2023 | Held at 5.00–5.25% After hikes | $1,959 | +0.6% | −1.8% | −0.1% | −1.3% | +1.8% | +18.3% |
| Jan 26, 2022 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,853 | −3.2% | −2.3% | +1.9% | +2.0% | −5.5% | +4.2% |
| Dec 15, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,772 | +1.5% | +1.7% | +2.5% | +9.6% | +4.4% | +0.9% |
| Nov 3, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,789 | +0.2% | +3.3% | −0.3% | +0.8% | +4.8% | −8.9% |
| Sep 22, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,778 | −1.6% | −3.1% | +0.2% | +0.6% | +8.9% | −5.5% |
| Jul 28, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,800 | +1.7% | +0.8% | −0.3% | −0.4% | +1.7% | −2.8% |
| Jun 16, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,856 | −4.4% | −3.9% | −2.2% | −3.3% | −4.5% | −2.0% |
| Apr 28, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,779 | −0.6% | +0.3% | +6.6% | +1.2% | +0.8% | +6.2% |
| Mar 17, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,731 | +0.1% | +0.1% | +2.8% | +7.5% | +3.7% | +10.3% |
| Jan 27, 2021 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,851 | −0.7% | −0.9% | −6.6% | −4.2% | −2.8% | −1.1% |
| Dec 16, 2020 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,855 | +1.9% | +1.2% | −0.8% | −6.1% | −4.7% | −3.1% |
| Nov 5, 2020 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,896 | +2.9% | −1.2% | −1.6% | −3.3% | −3.1% | −4.2% |
| Sep 16, 2020 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,966 | −0.8% | −5.0% | −2.9% | −5.6% | −11.9% | −10.7% |
| Jul 29, 2020 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,945 | −0.1% | +5.4% | −0.6% | −1.7% | −5.5% | −5.8% |
| Jun 10, 2020 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,722 | +1.0% | +0.8% | +4.6% | +13.5% | +8.9% | +10.1% |
| Apr 29, 2020 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,711 | −1.5% | −1.5% | +2.4% | +14.2% | +11.8% | +3.4% |
| Jan 29, 2020 | Held at 1.50–1.75% After cuts | $1,569 | +0.9% | −0.7% | −0.3% | +8.6% | +24.5% | +17.1% |
| Dec 11, 2019 | Held at 1.50–1.75% After cuts | $1,463 | +0.3% | +0.7% | +5.9% | +3.6% | +18.8% | +25.6% |
| Jun 19, 2019 | Held at 2.25–2.50% After hikes | $1,347 | +3.4% | +4.8% | +5.8% | +11.9% | +9.5% | +28.6% |
| May 1, 2019 | Held at 2.25–2.50% After hikes | $1,283 | −1.0% | −0.3% | +1.8% | +11.2% | +15.9% | +31.3% |
| Mar 20, 2019 | Held at 2.25–2.50% After hikes | $1,305 | +0.1% | +0.4% | −2.5% | +3.0% | +15.5% | +13.3% |
| Jan 30, 2019 | Held at 2.25–2.50% After hikes | $1,308 | +0.9% | +0.1% | −0.9% | −2.0% | +9.0% | +21.0% |
| Nov 8, 2018 | Held at 2.00–2.25% After hikes | $1,226 | −1.6% | −1.1% | +1.3% | +6.8% | +5.6% | +18.7% |
| Aug 1, 2018 | Held at 1.75–2.00% After hikes | $1,224 | −1.1% | −0.9% | −2.1% | −0.1% | +7.6% | +18.1% |
| May 2, 2018 | Held at 1.50–1.75% After hikes | $1,304 | +0.5% | +0.6% | −0.7% | −6.6% | −6.2% | −1.9% |
| Jan 31, 2018 | Held at 1.25–1.50% After hikes | $1,335 | +0.7% | −1.8% | −1.1% | −2.5% | −8.8% | −1.4% |
| Nov 1, 2017 | Held at 1.00–1.25% After hikes | $1,267 | +0.6% | +1.2% | +0.9% | +5.2% | +3.6% | −2.8% |
| Sep 20, 2017 | Held at 1.00–1.25% After hikes | $1,306 | −1.2% | −1.7% | −1.5% | −3.5% | +3.3% | −8.4% |
| Jul 26, 2017 | Held at 1.00–1.25% After hikes | $1,250 | +0.7% | +1.3% | +2.9% | +2.2% | +8.5% | −2.0% |
| May 3, 2017 | Held at 0.75–1.00% After hikes | $1,257 | −2.3% | −3.0% | +0.7% | +1.0% | +0.8% | +3.8% |
| Feb 1, 2017 | Held at 0.50–0.75% After hikes | $1,210 | +0.4% | +2.5% | +2.0% | +3.8% | +4.9% | +11.7% |
| Nov 2, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $1,288 | +1.1% | −0.8% | −9.0% | −6.0% | −2.4% | −1.0% |
| Sep 21, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $1,315 | +1.7% | +0.5% | −3.8% | −13.4% | −6.5% | +1.0% |
| Jul 27, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $1,321 | +1.5% | +3.3% | +0.1% | −4.3% | −8.4% | −6.0% |
| Jun 15, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $1,288 | +0.8% | −1.4% | +3.1% | +2.4% | −10.0% | −0.1% |
| Apr 27, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $1,243 | +1.8% | +2.5% | −1.7% | +6.7% | +1.7% | +3.1% |
| Mar 16, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $1,231 | +2.8% | −0.6% | +0.3% | +4.7% | +7.1% | −2.5% |
| Jan 27, 2016 | Held at 0.25–0.50% After hikes | $1,120 | −0.4% | +1.9% | +8.9% | +11.6% | +18.4% | +8.0% |
| Oct 28, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,166 | −1.6% | −5.1% | −9.3% | −4.2% | +10.7% | +8.6% |
| Sep 17, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,120 | +1.6% | +2.9% | +5.1% | −3.8% | +12.0% | +17.3% |
| Jul 29, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,096 | −0.7% | −1.0% | +2.4% | +6.3% | +1.8% | +22.3% |
| Jun 17, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,181 | +1.8% | −0.7% | −3.1% | −6.6% | −9.9% | +9.1% |
| Apr 29, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,214 | −2.6% | −1.9% | −2.0% | −9.7% | −3.9% | +3.0% |
| Mar 18, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,148 | +1.8% | +4.3% | +4.8% | +2.5% | −4.0% | +7.2% |
| Jan 28, 2015 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,292 | −2.9% | −2.1% | −6.1% | −6.3% | −15.1% | −13.6% |
| Dec 17, 2014 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,194 | 0.0% | −1.7% | +8.4% | −0.8% | +0.6% | −9.8% |
| Oct 29, 2014 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,229 | −2.5% | −6.8% | −4.4% | +4.0% | −4.5% | −4.3% |
| Sep 17, 2014 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,237 | −0.8% | −1.4% | +0.4% | −3.4% | −5.5% | −9.4% |
| Jul 30, 2014 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,301 | −1.4% | +0.6% | −0.8% | −5.5% | −1.1% | −15.7% |
| Jun 18, 2014 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,272 | +3.3% | +4.0% | +3.1% | −2.8% | −5.1% | −7.5% |
| Apr 30, 2014 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,296 | −1.0% | −0.6% | −3.9% | 0.0% | −5.2% | −6.7% |
| Mar 19, 2014 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,359 | −2.1% | −4.1% | −4.8% | −6.4% | −9.0% | −15.3% |
| Jan 29, 2014 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,251 | −0.6% | +0.5% | +5.7% | +3.6% | +3.7% | +2.8% |
| Dec 18, 2013 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,230 | −3.0% | −1.4% | +1.0% | +8.6% | +7.0% | −2.9% |
| Oct 30, 2013 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,346 | −1.6% | −2.1% | −7.0% | −7.9% | −3.2% | −9.0% |
| Sep 18, 2013 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,309 | +4.4% | +2.1% | +1.0% | −6.0% | +1.7% | −5.6% |
| Jul 31, 2013 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,324 | −0.7% | −3.1% | +6.3% | +2.2% | −4.7% | −2.1% |
| Jun 19, 2013 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,367 | −5.4% | −9.5% | −6.1% | −3.7% | −9.4% | −6.9% |
| May 1, 2013 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,469 | 0.0% | −0.1% | −5.1% | −9.9% | −7.9% | −11.8% |
| Mar 20, 2013 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,611 | +0.2% | −0.5% | −12.7% | −14.8% | −18.3% | −15.6% |
| Jan 30, 2013 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,664 | +0.1% | +0.6% | −4.5% | −11.7% | −20.1% | −24.0% |
| Dec 12, 2012 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,710 | −1.0% | −2.6% | −2.5% | −7.1% | −19.1% | −28.1% |
| Oct 24, 2012 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,711 | +0.3% | +0.5% | +1.2% | −1.2% | −17.7% | −22.7% |
| Sep 13, 2012 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,737 | +2.2% | +1.2% | +1.7% | −1.6% | −8.2% | −20.1% |
| Aug 1, 2012 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,622 | −1.5% | −0.5% | +2.4% | +5.2% | +2.1% | −18.2% |
| Jun 20, 2012 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,626 | −2.7% | −3.2% | −2.6% | +8.9% | +4.1% | −14.8% |
| Apr 25, 2012 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,650 | +0.2% | −0.1% | −4.9% | −4.7% | +5.7% | −15.6% |
| Mar 13, 2012 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,698 | −3.1% | −2.4% | −1.7% | −6.7% | +0.2% | −6.9% |
| Jan 25, 2012 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,666 | +3.7% | +4.5% | +6.7% | −1.0% | −5.4% | +0.6% |
| Dec 13, 2011 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,660 | −3.4% | −2.8% | −1.4% | +1.8% | −4.5% | +2.3% |
| Nov 2, 2011 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,699 | +3.5% | +5.0% | +3.1% | +2.4% | −2.1% | +0.4% |
| Sep 21, 2011 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,799 | −4.3% | −8.7% | −9.9% | −11.2% | −7.6% | −3.4% |
| Aug 9, 2011 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,693 | +4.7% | +5.3% | +6.9% | +3.3% | +2.4% | −4.2% |
| Jun 22, 2011 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,545 | −1.4% | −2.6% | +3.6% | +16.1% | +1.9% | +4.8% |
| Apr 27, 2011 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,498 | +2.5% | +2.9% | +1.4% | +7.7% | +9.7% | +10.2% |
| Mar 15, 2011 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,422 | −1.4% | +0.3% | +2.5% | +6.6% | +30.1% | +17.9% |
| Jan 26, 2011 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,324 | +0.8% | +1.0% | +6.6% | +13.1% | +21.9% | +25.0% |
| Dec 14, 2010 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,399 | −0.7% | −1.1% | −1.3% | +1.7% | +9.1% | +22.1% |
| Nov 3, 2010 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,351 | +2.2% | +2.9% | +2.8% | −1.4% | +15.2% | +26.9% |
| Sep 21, 2010 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,279 | +1.1% | +1.2% | +4.7% | +7.0% | +9.7% | +42.3% |
| Aug 10, 2010 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,203 | +0.2% | +1.9% | +4.3% | +16.0% | +10.4% | +36.1% |
| Jun 23, 2010 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,236 | 0.0% | +0.6% | −3.0% | +3.5% | +10.3% | +23.8% |
| Apr 28, 2010 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,150 | +1.5% | +1.3% | +5.4% | +1.6% | +15.1% | +29.7% |
| Mar 16, 2010 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,104 | +1.6% | −0.2% | +4.6% | +10.9% | +12.9% | +29.2% |
| Jan 27, 2010 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,093 | −0.5% | +2.0% | +0.1% | +5.1% | +8.3% | +25.5% |
| Dec 16, 2009 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,122 | −0.4% | −3.3% | +1.1% | 0.0% | +10.0% | +24.0% |
| Nov 4, 2009 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,061 | +2.6% | +5.1% | +13.9% | +5.1% | +11.7% | +25.7% |
| Sep 23, 2009 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $1,014 | −0.4% | −1.8% | +3.8% | +9.0% | +8.2% | +25.5% |
| Aug 12, 2009 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $942.75 | +1.1% | 0.0% | +5.1% | +17.4% | +12.9% | +26.5% |
| Jun 24, 2009 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $920.75 | +1.8% | +1.9% | +3.2% | +8.3% | +21.3% | +35.2% |
| Apr 29, 2009 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $891.00 | −0.9% | +2.1% | +9.5% | +6.0% | +19.2% | +27.2% |
| Mar 18, 2009 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $915.50 | +4.5% | +1.5% | −4.9% | +1.6% | +9.1% | +20.6% |
| Jan 28, 2009 | Held at 0–0.25% After cuts | $897.50 | −0.6% | +0.8% | +4.3% | −0.7% | +6.4% | +23.5% |
| Sep 16, 2008 | Held at 2.00% After cuts | $775.00 | +4.9% | +16.0% | +9.3% | +6.6% | +19.7% | +29.0% |
| Aug 5, 2008 | Held at 2.00% After cuts | $905.75 | −2.9% | −9.7% | −11.3% | −19.3% | +1.5% | +2.8% |
| Jun 25, 2008 | Held at 2.00% After cuts | $889.50 | +2.2% | +5.1% | +4.3% | −0.1% | −3.9% | +5.7% |
| Aug 7, 2007 | Held at 5.25% After hikes | $671.50 | +0.6% | −0.5% | +1.3% | +18.6% | +36.2% | +33.7% |
| Jun 28, 2007 | Held at 5.25% After hikes | $642.10 | +1.3% | +1.4% | +2.9% | +13.5% | +26.2% | +41.3% |
| May 9, 2007 | Held at 5.25% After hikes | $684.25 | −1.6% | −2.4% | −4.2% | −2.4% | +16.4% | +24.7% |
| Mar 21, 2007 | Held at 5.25% After hikes | $659.00 | +0.6% | +1.2% | +4.9% | −0.2% | +9.1% | +51.0% |
| Jan 31, 2007 | Held at 5.25% After hikes | $645.20 | +2.3% | +1.3% | +3.9% | +4.4% | +2.5% | +40.9% |
| Dec 12, 2006 | Held at 5.25% After hikes | $626.75 | −0.4% | −1.0% | −1.1% | +3.8% | +3.3% | +26.5% |
| Oct 25, 2006 | Held at 5.25% After hikes | $575.60 | +3.6% | +6.7% | +9.5% | +11.6% | +19.6% | +32.8% |
| Sep 20, 2006 | Held at 5.25% After hikes | $583.50 | −0.8% | +1.8% | +2.4% | +5.2% | +12.3% | +20.7% |
| Aug 8, 2006 | Held at 5.25% After hikes | $649.75 | −0.1% | −3.7% | −2.2% | −4.2% | −0.6% | +2.5% |
| May 4, 2004 | Held at 1.00% After cuts | $388.50 | +1.0% | −3.4% | +0.5% | +0.8% | +9.2% | +12.5% |
| Mar 16, 2004 | Held at 1.00% After cuts | $398.10 | +1.2% | +4.6% | 0.0% | −3.2% | +0.3% | +10.4% |
| Jan 28, 2004 | Held at 1.00% After cuts | $405.70 | 0.0% | −1.6% | −3.1% | −2.3% | −3.9% | +4.2% |
| Dec 9, 2003 | Held at 1.00% After cuts | $406.15 | +0.9% | +0.5% | +4.7% | −1.5% | −5.2% | +10.5% |
| Oct 28, 2003 | Held at 1.00% After cuts | $386.00 | −0.2% | −2.1% | +2.6% | +6.5% | +2.7% | +9.5% |
| Sep 16, 2003 | Held at 1.00% After cuts | $373.50 | +0.2% | +3.0% | 0.0% | +9.0% | +6.6% | +7.5% |
| Aug 12, 2003 | Held at 1.00% After cuts | $359.15 | −0.1% | +0.3% | +5.8% | +5.5% | +13.0% | +11.1% |
| May 6, 2003 | Held at 1.25% After cuts | $342.30 | −0.1% | +2.4% | +7.1% | +1.5% | +12.9% | +12.8% |
| Mar 18, 2003 | Held at 1.25% After cuts | $340.75 | −1.5% | −2.6% | −4.9% | +6.5% | +11.0% | +16.9% |
| Jan 29, 2003 | Held at 1.25% After cuts | $368.40 | −0.2% | +3.7% | −4.7% | −10.0% | −0.8% | +11.0% |
| Dec 10, 2002 | Held at 1.25% After cuts | $325.10 | −0.3% | +4.3% | +8.6% | +7.3% | +9.0% | +23.6% |
| Sep 24, 2002 | Held at 1.75% After cuts | $322.50 | +0.8% | −0.2% | −3.2% | +5.9% | +3.4% | +16.0% |
| Aug 13, 2002 | Held at 1.75% After cuts | $316.70 | −0.3% | −2.7% | −0.4% | +1.6% | +17.9% | +11.1% |
| Jun 26, 2002 | Held at 1.75% After cuts | $321.70 | −0.9% | −3.4% | −3.8% | +0.2% | +7.2% | +11.2% |
| May 7, 2002 | Held at 1.75% After cuts | $311.20 | −0.2% | −0.9% | +3.5% | −2.0% | +1.7% | +6.5% |
| Mar 19, 2002 | Held at 1.75% After cuts | $292.05 | −0.1% | +1.4% | +4.2% | +8.8% | +9.2% | +19.4% |
| Jan 30, 2002 | Held at 1.75% After cuts | $277.90 | +1.6% | +7.8% | +6.8% | +10.9% | +9.7% | +29.0% |
| Dec 19, 2000 | Held at 6.50% After hikes | $270.20 | +0.8% | +1.8% | −2.0% | −3.2% | +0.5% | +1.5% |
| Nov 15, 2000 | Held at 6.50% After hikes | $264.95 | +0.7% | +0.5% | +1.6% | −1.8% | +2.2% | +4.6% |
| Oct 3, 2000 | Held at 6.50% After hikes | $273.10 | −0.6% | −1.0% | −2.8% | −0.7% | −5.6% | +6.1% |
| Aug 22, 2000 | Held at 6.50% After hikes | $274.60 | −0.5% | −0.5% | −1.9% | −3.1% | −5.5% | +1.0% |
| Jun 28, 2000 | Held at 6.50% After hikes | $283.80 | +2.1% | +1.1% | −1.4% | −3.2% | −3.8% | −3.8% |
| Dec 21, 1999 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $284.25 | +0.5% | +2.1% | +1.3% | +0.2% | −0.1% | −4.2% |
| Oct 5, 1999 | Held at 5.25% After hikes | $312.75 | +1.8% | +2.4% | −7.0% | −10.7% | −11.5% | −13.2% |
| May 18, 1999 | Held at 4.75% After cuts | $276.10 | −1.3% | −1.6% | −6.5% | −6.2% | +5.5% | −1.1% |
| Mar 30, 1999 | Held at 4.75% After cuts | $280.15 | −0.2% | +0.3% | +2.3% | −6.3% | +9.6% | −0.1% |
| Feb 3, 1999 | Held at 4.75% After cuts | $288.55 | −0.5% | −0.1% | −0.3% | −0.2% | −11.3% | −1.2% |
| Dec 22, 1998 | Held at 4.75% After cuts | $289.65 | −1.3% | −0.6% | −0.7% | −1.9% | −10.0% | −2.4% |
| Aug 18, 1998 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $284.15 | +0.5% | −0.4% | +2.2% | +3.8% | +0.4% | −8.6% |
| Jul 1, 1998 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $296.30 | −0.8% | −1.5% | −2.1% | −0.1% | −3.2% | −11.9% |
| May 19, 1998 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $300.30 | −0.2% | −2.5% | −2.6% | −5.4% | −1.1% | −8.4% |
| Mar 31, 1998 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $301.85 | −0.3% | +2.4% | +1.7% | −2.6% | −2.7% | −7.4% |
| Feb 4, 1998 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $298.35 | +0.1% | 0.0% | −1.6% | −0.1% | −3.5% | −3.9% |
| Dec 16, 1997 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $283.60 | +1.5% | +3.1% | +1.3% | +2.4% | +5.0% | +3.2% |
| Nov 12, 1997 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $312.65 | −1.4% | −2.1% | −8.9% | −4.2% | −3.8% | −6.1% |
| Sep 30, 1997 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $327.10 | +3.1% | +1.5% | −4.2% | −11.3% | −7.7% | −9.5% |
| Aug 19, 1997 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $322.60 | −0.2% | +0.7% | −0.5% | −5.8% | −7.2% | −11.9% |
| Jul 2, 1997 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $333.70 | −0.3% | −4.9% | −2.2% | −0.5% | −13.0% | −11.1% |
| May 20, 1997 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $340.70 | +0.6% | +0.6% | −0.1% | −5.3% | −11.4% | −12.0% |
| Feb 5, 1997 | Held at 5.25% After cuts | $345.70 | −0.8% | −2.3% | +2.1% | −0.6% | −7.6% | −13.8% |
| Dec 17, 1996 | Held at 5.25% After cuts | $368.25 | +0.1% | +0.1% | −4.1% | −5.2% | −8.2% | −22.5% |
| Nov 13, 1996 | Held at 5.25% After cuts | $381.90 | +0.3% | −0.7% | −3.5% | −10.3% | −9.8% | −19.3% |
| Sep 24, 1996 | Held at 5.25% After cuts | $381.00 | +0.4% | −0.6% | +0.7% | −3.1% | −8.1% | −15.8% |
| Aug 20, 1996 | Held at 5.25% After cuts | $386.40 | +0.1% | +0.5% | −0.9% | −1.9% | −10.7% | −16.3% |
| Jul 3, 1996 | Held at 5.25% After cuts | $381.95 | −0.2% | +0.3% | +1.1% | −0.9% | −3.3% | −13.0% |
| May 21, 1996 | Held at 5.25% After cuts | $390.85 | 0.0% | 0.0% | −1.7% | −1.1% | −3.0% | −12.2% |
| Mar 26, 1996 | Held at 5.25% After cuts | $397.90 | +0.6% | −0.9% | −1.5% | −3.8% | −3.9% | −12.1% |
| Nov 15, 1995 | Held at 5.75% After cuts | $385.85 | −0.2% | −0.4% | 0.0% | +4.9% | +1.6% | −0.6% |
| Sep 26, 1995 | Held at 5.75% After cuts | $382.75 | +0.3% | −0.1% | 0.0% | +1.4% | +4.0% | −0.1% |
| Aug 22, 1995 | Held at 5.75% After cuts | $384.70 | −0.5% | −0.8% | −0.3% | +0.4% | +4.5% | +0.6% |
| May 23, 1995 | Held at 6.00% After hikes | $381.55 | +0.4% | +0.7% | +2.1% | +0.8% | +1.3% | +2.5% |
| Mar 28, 1995 | Held at 6.00% After hikes | $382.20 | +0.2% | +2.5% | +2.0% | +1.6% | +0.4% | +4.1% |
| Dec 20, 1994 | Held at 5.50% After hikes | $379.20 | +0.8% | +1.1% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +2.8% | +2.1% |
| Sep 27, 1994 | Held at 4.75% After hikes | $395.80 | +0.1% | −0.8% | −1.7% | −3.6% | −3.4% | −3.3% |
| Jul 6, 1994 | Held at 4.25% After hikes | $387.30 | −1.1% | −0.7% | −2.5% | +1.3% | −3.0% | −0.7% |
Why Fed meetings with no change matter for gold
Most Fed meetings end with no change. The reaction then depends on the statement, the projections and the press conference: whether they point to cuts or hikes later.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to gold when the Fed holds rates steady?
Since 1994, gold was higher 3 months after a Fed meeting with no rate change in 94 of 177 cases (53%), with a median move of +0.6% and an average of +1.2%. Over all 3-month periods since 1994, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +1.4%. The next day it was higher in 94 of 178 cases (median +0.1%).
Does gold always go up after a Fed meeting with no rate change?
No. Three months later it was lower in 83 of 177 cases; the worst was −19.3% after August 5, 2008 and the best +19.9% after January 29, 2025. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did gold do after the most recent case?
After held at 3.50–3.75% on July 29, 2026, gold moved +1.5% by the next day, +15.5% after a month. Longer periods will appear here once they have passed.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee's next decision is due on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, with the statement at 2:00 pm New York time. See the economic calendar for the other US releases that move gold.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from gold's last daily close before the event to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days after the event day (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months). The "1 day" figure therefore covers the event day and the next session, because Fed statements come out after the main US gold futures close. "All days" applies the same periods to every trading day since 1994, as a baseline.
More Patterns
After Fed rate cutsAfter Fed rate hikesAfter the first Fed cutAfter the last Fed hikeAfter a record high Economic calendarGold price history
Sources: rate decisions from the Federal Reserve (target changes since 1990; scheduled meeting outcomes since 1994). Gold prices: the London price from 1968 and this site's daily US-dollar closes (COMEX futures) for recent years. Calculated by Corgano; data through October 22, 2026.