What happens to gold after the Fed's last rate hike?
Since 1995, gold was higher 3 months after the last hike of a tightening cycle in 5 of 6 cases (83%), with a median move of +1.3% and an average of +1.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1995, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +1.5%. The next day it was higher in 3 of 6 cases (median −0.2%).
Gold After Last Hikes Of A Cycle: Summary
Move from the close before the event. "All days" is every trading day since 1995, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Median | −0.2% | +0.2% | +1.3% | +1.3% | +2.4% | +10.2% |
| Average | +0.6% | +1.6% | +2.2% | +1.3% | +1.9% | +7.0% |
| Higher in | 50% (3/6) | 50% (3/6) | 50% (3/6) | 83% (5/6) | 67% (4/6) | 67% (4/6) |
| Best | +5.3% Jun 29, 2006 | +7.4% Jun 29, 2006 | +9.3% Jun 29, 2006 | +5.0% Dec 19, 2018 | +11.8% Dec 19, 2018 | +19.9% Jul 26, 2023 |
| Worst | −1.2% Mar 25, 1997 | −0.4% Mar 25, 1997 | −2.3% Mar 25, 1997 | −3.8% Mar 25, 1997 | −7.9% Mar 25, 1997 | −14.2% Mar 25, 1997 |
| All days: median | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.4% | +1.5% | +3.5% | +7.1% |
| All days: higher in | 52% | 53% | 54% | 58% | 63% | 66% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close before the event, average of all casesEvery Case
Last hikes of a cycle since 1995, newest first. Gold price is the close before the event (US dollars per ounce).
| Date | Decision | Gold before | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2023 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.25–5.50% | $1,964 | −0.9% | +0.6% | −0.8% | +1.1% | +2.7% | +19.9% |
| Dec 19, 2018 | Raised 0.25 pt to 2.25–2.50% | $1,249 | +1.2% | +2.2% | +2.7% | +5.0% | +11.8% | +18.3% |
| Jun 29, 2006 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.25% | $582.75 | +5.3% | +7.4% | +9.3% | +1.4% | +6.5% | +12.0% |
| May 16, 2000 | Raised 0.50 pt to 6.50% | $275.05 | −0.7% | −0.4% | +4.5% | +0.1% | −3.7% | −2.2% |
| Mar 25, 1997 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.50% | $350.20 | −1.2% | −0.4% | −2.3% | −3.8% | −7.9% | −14.2% |
| Feb 1, 1995 | Raised 0.50 pt to 6.00% | $374.90 | +0.3% | −0.1% | 0.0% | +3.7% | +2.1% | +8.4% |
Why last hikes of a cycle matter for gold
The last hike is only known with hindsight: it is the final increase before the Fed's next move, which was a cut. Markets often start pricing the end of hikes before it happens.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to gold after the Fed's last rate hike?
Since 1995, gold was higher 3 months after the last hike of a tightening cycle in 5 of 6 cases (83%), with a median move of +1.3% and an average of +1.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1995, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +1.5%. The next day it was higher in 3 of 6 cases (median −0.2%).
Does gold always go up after the last hike of a tightening cycle?
No. Three months later it was lower in 1 of 6 cases; the worst was −3.8% after March 25, 1997 and the best +5.0% after December 19, 2018. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did gold do after the most recent case?
After raised 0.25 pt to 5.25–5.50% on July 26, 2023, gold moved −0.9% by the next day, −0.8% after a month and +1.1% after three months.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee's next decision is due on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, with the statement at 2:00 pm New York time. See the economic calendar for the other US releases that move gold.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from gold's last daily close before the event to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days after the event day (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months). The "1 day" figure therefore covers the event day and the next session, because Fed statements come out after the main US gold futures close. "All days" applies the same periods to every trading day since 1995, as a baseline.