What's Driving the Gold Price
Gold is $4,104 an ounce, −4.2% in three months. Four charts of what moves it, each with what it shows now:
- Rates: The Fed's target range is 3.75–4.00% (effective rate 3.88%). Futures price three-month SOFR at 4.16% for Dec 2026 and 4.48% for Dec 2027, against 3.97% today: markets expect rates about 0.51 percentage points higher by Dec 2027, roughly 2 quarter-point hikes. The 2-year yield is 4.61% (+36 bp in three months).
- Dollar: The dollar index is 101.58 (+1.9% in three months, while gold fell 4.2%). Over the last 90 trading days the daily correlation is −0.43 (moderate: gold has tended to rise when the dollar falls).
- Real yields: The 10-year real yield is 2.64% (+24 bp in three months). Daily correlation over 90 trading days: −0.15 (weak: gold still tends to dip when real yields rise). Since 2022 real yields no longer set gold's level; see Gold vs real yields.
- Positioning: Speculators (managed money and other large traders) were net long 18.6 million oz on 27 Oct, down 3.2 million oz in four weeks. That is in the lowest third of the past three years. Positioning shows how much buying or selling power is left; very large positions have often come before reversals.
Interest rates: the Fed and what markets expect
The Fed's target range is 3.75–4.00% (effective rate 3.88%). Futures price three-month SOFR at 4.16% for Dec 2026 and 4.48% for Dec 2027, against 3.97% today: markets expect rates about 0.51 percentage points higher by Dec 2027, roughly 2 quarter-point hikes. The 2-year yield is 4.61% (+36 bp in three months).
Gold vs the US dollar
The dollar index is 101.58 (+1.9% in three months, while gold fell 4.2%). Over the last 90 trading days the daily correlation is −0.43 (moderate: gold has tended to rise when the dollar falls).
Gold vs the 10-year real yield
The 10-year real yield is 2.64% (+24 bp in three months). Daily correlation over 90 trading days: −0.15 (weak: gold still tends to dip when real yields rise). Since 2022 real yields no longer set gold's level; see Gold vs real yields.
Speculators' net position in gold futures
Speculators (managed money and other large traders) were net long 18.6 million oz on 27 Oct, down 3.2 million oz in four weeks. That is in the lowest third of the past three years. Positioning shows how much buying or selling power is left; very large positions have often come before reversals.
How to read these charts
Two lines, two axes. The gold price is on the right axis; the driver is on the left. Where a driver usually moves the opposite way to gold (the dollar, real yields), it is drawn upside down, so the lines move together when the usual pattern holds.
When the lines part, something else is in charge. Gold's break from real yields after 2022, when central banks bought record amounts, is the best-known example.
The sentences above each chart use correlations of daily changes over the last 90 trading days: −1 means they always moved in opposite directions, +1 always together, near 0 no link. A link that held for months can fade quickly.
Day to day
For today's move and the headlines behind it, see why gold is up or down today. For the chart patterns, support and resistance, see gold technical analysis; for the dates that move rates, the economic calendar.
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These charts describe how prices and their drivers moved together. They are not a forecast or investment advice.
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What Drives Gold: FAQ
What drives the gold price?
Interest rates and the dollar from day to day: gold pays no interest, so it tends to fall when real yields and the dollar rise. Since 2022 central-bank buying, Asian demand and worries about government debt have set its level more than yields have. Futures positioning shows how much of the move is speculative.
Why is the dollar drawn upside down?
Because gold usually moves the opposite way to the dollar. Drawn upside down, the dollar line rises when the dollar weakens, so when the two lines move together the usual pattern is holding; when they part, something else is driving gold. Untick "Upside down" to see it the normal way.
What do SOFR futures show?
Three-month SOFR futures trade on the CME; their price is 100 minus the average SOFR interest rate expected over the three months after the contract month. A December contract at 95.85 means markets expect about 4.15% at the end of that year. Comparing it with today's rate shows whether markets expect the Fed to raise or cut. The 2-year Treasury yield gives a similar, longer reading.
Who are the "speculators" in the COT report?
The CFTC's managed money category (hedge funds and commodity trading advisers) plus other reportable large traders: the usual measure of speculative positioning. Producers, merchants and swap dealers are left out, as they mostly hedge. Net long = long contracts minus short contracts; one COMEX gold contract is 100 troy ounces.
Why is the gold ETF holdings chart missing?
Gold ETF holdings data belong to the World Gold Council and the ETF issuers, which do not allow automated copying without permission. A request is pending; the CFTC positioning chart shows a similar picture of investor appetite.
Is this a forecast?
No. The charts show how gold and each driver moved together in the past and what the latest figures are. Relationships change (gold broke away from real yields after 2022), so none of this predicts the next move. Not investment advice.
How often is it updated?
Prices and the dollar daily, yields after each US business day, the fed funds and SOFR futures readings daily, the CFTC report every Friday (positions as of Tuesday). The sentences above each chart are recomputed from the same data.
Cite this page
For essays, articles and research. Prices on this page update daily, so the citations include today's date as the date you accessed it.
@misc{corgano2026whatsdrivingthegold, author = {{Corgano}}, title = {What's driving the gold price}, howpublished = {\url{https://goldprice.corgano.com/gold-price-drivers}}, year = {2026}, note = {Corgano Gold Price, accessed 2026-11-05}}Data
Fed funds target, effective fed funds rate, SOFR and 2-year Treasury yield: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, via FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). SOFR futures: CME Group three-month SOFR futures settlement prices via Yahoo Finance, recorded daily (implied rate = 100 − price). US Dollar Index (DXY, ICE): Yahoo Finance daily closes. Real yield: US Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates (public domain). Positioning: CFTC Commitments of Traders, disaggregated futures-only report. Gold: COMEX front-month futures daily closes; the price above is live. Weekly values before the last 400 days.