What happens to gold when the Fed raises interest rates?
Since 1994, gold was higher 3 months after a Fed rate hike in 36 of 51 cases (71%), with a median move of +2.3% and an average of +3.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1994, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +1.4%. The next day it was higher in 32 of 52 cases (median +0.2%).
Gold After Fed Rate Hikes: Summary
Move from the close before the event. "All days" is every trading day since 1994, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 52 | 52 | 52 | 51 | 51 | 51 |
| Median | +0.2% | 0.0% | +0.5% | +2.3% | +2.8% | +9.0% |
| Average | +0.1% | +0.5% | +0.8% | +3.3% | +5.3% | +10.9% |
| Higher in | 62% (32/52) | 50% (26/52) | 54% (28/52) | 71% (36/51) | 65% (33/51) | 84% (43/51) |
| Best | +5.3% Jun 29, 2006 | +9.0% Feb 2, 2000 | +12.9% Mar 28, 2006 | +20.8% Nov 1, 2005 | +39.7% Nov 1, 2005 | +50.0% Aug 9, 2005 |
| Worst | −5.0% Dec 13, 2005 | −6.3% Dec 13, 2005 | −10.9% May 10, 2006 | −7.5% Jun 15, 2022 | −13.1% Mar 16, 2022 | −14.2% Mar 25, 1997 |
| All days: median | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +1.4% | +3.1% | +6.5% |
| All days: higher in | 52% | 53% | 53% | 58% | 62% | 66% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close before the event, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often gold was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Fed rate hikes | 52 | +0.2% 62% up | +0.5% 54% up | +2.3% 71% up | +9.0% 84% up |
| Hikes of 0.25 pt | 41 | +0.1% 59% up | +0.3% 54% up | +3.0% 75% up | +10.4% 83% up |
| Hikes of 0.50 pt or more | 11 | +0.3% 73% up | +2.0% 55% up | +0.1% 55% up | +8.4% 91% up |
Every Case
Fed rate hikes since 1994, newest first. Gold price is the close before the event (US dollars per ounce).
| Date | Decision | Gold before | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Raised 0.25 pt to 3.75–4.00% | $4,333 | +1.5% | −0.3% | −3.8% | — | — | — |
| Jul 26, 2023 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.25–5.50% | $1,964 | −0.9% | +0.6% | −0.8% | +1.1% | +2.7% | +19.9% |
| May 3, 2023 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.00–5.25% | $2,023 | +1.6% | +0.7% | −2.7% | −2.7% | −1.8% | +14.2% |
| Mar 22, 2023 | Raised 0.25 pt to 4.75–5.00% | $1,941 | +2.8% | +1.3% | +2.5% | −0.9% | −0.1% | +12.5% |
| Feb 1, 2023 | Raised 0.25 pt to 4.50–4.75% | $1,930 | +0.1% | −2.0% | −3.9% | +5.6% | +2.0% | +7.3% |
| Dec 14, 2022 | Raised 0.50 pt to 4.25–4.50% | $1,826 | −2.1% | 0.0% | +4.6% | +8.1% | +8.0% | +12.0% |
| Nov 2, 2022 | Raised 0.75 pt to 3.75–4.00% | $1,650 | −1.1% | +3.9% | +9.7% | +13.8% | +22.7% | +21.2% |
| Sep 21, 2022 | Raised 0.75 pt to 3.00–3.25% | $1,671 | +0.6% | −0.1% | −2.1% | +9.2% | +19.4% | +16.4% |
| Jul 27, 2022 | Raised 0.75 pt to 2.25–2.50% | $1,718 | +1.9% | +3.4% | +3.1% | −3.5% | +12.4% | +14.1% |
| Jun 15, 2022 | Raised 0.75 pt to 1.50–1.75% | $1,814 | +2.0% | +0.9% | −5.7% | −7.5% | +0.3% | +8.7% |
| May 4, 2022 | Raised 0.50 pt to 0.75–1.00% | $1,871 | +0.3% | −0.9% | −1.1% | −3.4% | −11.8% | +8.2% |
| Mar 16, 2022 | Raised 0.25 pt to 0.25–0.50% | $1,930 | +0.7% | +0.4% | +2.3% | −5.7% | −13.1% | +2.3% |
| Dec 19, 2018 | Raised 0.25 pt to 2.25–2.50% | $1,249 | +1.2% | +2.2% | +2.7% | +5.0% | +11.8% | +18.3% |
| Sep 26, 2018 | Raised 0.25 pt to 2.00–2.25% | $1,200 | −1.5% | −0.1% | +2.4% | +6.4% | +7.7% | +24.9% |
| Jun 13, 2018 | Raised 0.25 pt to 1.75–2.00% | $1,295 | +0.7% | −1.8% | −4.3% | −7.0% | −3.9% | +3.5% |
| Mar 21, 2018 | Raised 0.25 pt to 1.50–1.75% | $1,311 | +1.2% | +1.0% | +2.0% | −3.0% | −8.3% | 0.0% |
| Dec 13, 2017 | Raised 0.25 pt to 1.25–1.50% | $1,239 | +1.2% | +2.2% | +7.8% | +6.3% | +3.0% | +0.7% |
| Jun 14, 2017 | Raised 0.25 pt to 1.00–1.25% | $1,266 | −1.0% | −1.6% | −3.9% | +5.1% | −1.7% | +2.4% |
| Mar 15, 2017 | Raised 0.25 pt to 0.75–1.00% | $1,199 | +2.3% | +4.2% | +7.4% | +5.6% | +12.3% | +10.6% |
| Dec 14, 2016 | Raised 0.25 pt to 0.50–0.75% | $1,158 | −2.6% | −2.3% | +3.4% | +3.5% | +9.3% | +9.0% |
| Dec 16, 2015 | Raised 0.25 pt to 0.25–0.50% | $1,062 | −1.1% | +0.6% | +2.5% | +18.1% | +21.9% | +9.0% |
| Jun 29, 2006 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.25% | $582.75 | +5.3% | +7.4% | +9.3% | +1.4% | +6.5% | +12.0% |
| May 10, 2006 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.00% | $691.25 | +3.5% | +1.2% | −10.9% | −6.5% | −9.9% | −2.5% |
| Mar 28, 2006 | Raised 0.25 pt to 4.75% | $565.00 | 0.0% | +4.1% | +12.9% | +4.2% | +4.2% | +16.6% |
| Jan 31, 2006 | Raised 0.25 pt to 4.50% | $565.00 | +0.6% | −1.1% | −0.1% | +16.4% | +12.8% | +13.6% |
| Dec 13, 2005 | Raised 0.25 pt to 4.25% | $536.50 | −5.0% | −6.3% | +2.2% | +1.7% | +9.3% | +18.5% |
| Nov 1, 2005 | Raised 0.25 pt to 4.00% | $470.75 | −2.1% | −1.9% | +5.3% | +20.8% | +39.7% | +23.4% |
| Sep 20, 2005 | Raised 0.25 pt to 3.75% | $464.50 | +1.0% | −0.1% | +0.3% | +9.1% | +19.0% | +26.8% |
| Aug 9, 2005 | Raised 0.25 pt to 3.50% | $436.20 | +0.1% | +1.6% | +2.0% | +5.6% | +30.4% | +50.0% |
| Jun 30, 2005 | Raised 0.25 pt to 3.25% | $435.80 | −0.7% | −2.4% | −1.6% | +6.5% | +14.7% | +33.0% |
| May 3, 2005 | Raised 0.25 pt to 3.00% | $429.50 | −0.2% | −0.5% | −2.1% | +0.5% | +10.5% | +48.0% |
| Mar 22, 2005 | Raised 0.25 pt to 2.75% | $432.70 | −1.5% | −1.4% | +0.3% | +0.6% | +5.7% | +28.6% |
| Feb 2, 2005 | Raised 0.25 pt to 2.50% | $420.90 | −1.0% | −2.3% | +2.2% | +1.7% | +2.6% | +32.2% |
| Dec 14, 2004 | Raised 0.25 pt to 2.25% | $435.10 | +0.9% | +1.3% | −2.6% | +1.6% | −1.4% | +15.9% |
| Nov 10, 2004 | Raised 0.25 pt to 2.00% | $433.65 | 0.0% | +2.3% | +0.8% | −5.2% | −1.9% | +6.3% |
| Sep 21, 2004 | Raised 0.25 pt to 1.75% | $404.30 | +0.3% | +1.8% | +4.8% | +8.6% | +8.5% | +10.2% |
| Aug 10, 2004 | Raised 0.25 pt to 1.50% | $399.00 | −1.3% | +0.6% | −0.7% | +8.0% | +4.4% | +8.0% |
| Jun 30, 2004 | Raised 0.25 pt to 1.25% | $394.40 | +0.1% | +1.3% | −1.8% | +3.8% | +11.8% | +10.8% |
| May 16, 2000 | Raised 0.50 pt to 6.50% | $275.05 | −0.7% | −0.4% | +4.5% | +0.1% | −3.7% | −2.2% |
| Mar 21, 2000 | Raised 0.25 pt to 6.00% | $285.75 | +0.7% | −1.8% | −1.5% | +0.7% | −5.0% | −8.8% |
| Feb 2, 2000 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.75% | $283.00 | +0.7% | +9.0% | +2.4% | −1.1% | −1.9% | −6.4% |
| Nov 16, 1999 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.50% | $290.90 | +0.9% | +2.2% | −3.7% | +4.8% | −6.1% | −9.0% |
| Aug 24, 1999 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.25% | $255.90 | −1.2% | −0.5% | +3.3% | +15.2% | +18.0% | +6.7% |
| Jun 30, 1999 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.00% | $262.00 | +0.2% | −1.9% | −3.1% | +15.1% | +11.0% | +10.6% |
| Mar 25, 1997 | Raised 0.25 pt to 5.50% | $350.20 | −1.2% | −0.4% | −2.3% | −3.8% | −7.9% | −14.2% |
| Feb 1, 1995 | Raised 0.50 pt to 6.00% | $374.90 | +0.3% | −0.1% | 0.0% | +3.7% | +2.1% | +8.4% |
| Nov 15, 1994 | Raised 0.75 pt to 5.50% | $385.10 | +0.3% | −0.3% | −1.2% | −2.2% | −0.6% | +0.8% |
| Aug 16, 1994 | Raised 0.50 pt to 4.75% | $376.60 | +0.2% | +1.3% | +3.0% | +2.3% | −0.2% | +1.8% |
| May 17, 1994 | Raised 0.50 pt to 4.25% | $379.30 | +0.1% | +2.3% | +2.0% | −0.7% | +1.6% | +1.2% |
| Apr 18, 1994 | Raised 0.25 pt to 3.75% Unscheduled | $377.00 | −1.0% | −1.1% | +0.7% | +2.5% | +2.8% | +3.2% |
| Mar 22, 1994 | Raised 0.25 pt to 3.50% | $386.45 | +0.5% | +0.1% | −4.3% | +0.7% | +2.2% | −0.9% |
| Feb 4, 1994 | Raised 0.25 pt to 3.25% | $385.65 | −0.6% | −1.0% | −2.1% | −1.2% | −1.9% | −2.6% |
Why Fed rate hikes matter for gold
Higher rates make cash and bonds more attractive than gold, which pays no interest, and tend to support the dollar. Hikes are usually well telegraphed, though, and come when the economy is strong and inflation is rising, which can support gold at the same time.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to gold when the Fed raises interest rates?
Since 1994, gold was higher 3 months after a Fed rate hike in 36 of 51 cases (71%), with a median move of +2.3% and an average of +3.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1994, it rose 58% of the time, with a median of +1.4%. The next day it was higher in 32 of 52 cases (median +0.2%).
Does gold always go up after a Fed rate hike?
No. Three months later it was lower in 15 of 51 cases; the worst was −7.5% after June 15, 2022 and the best +20.8% after November 1, 2005. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did gold do after the most recent case?
After raised 0.25 pt to 3.75–4.00% on September 16, 2026, gold moved +1.5% by the next day, −3.8% after a month. Longer periods will appear here once they have passed.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee's next decision is due on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, with the statement at 2:00 pm New York time. See the economic calendar for the other US releases that move gold.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from gold's last daily close before the event to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days after the event day (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months). The "1 day" figure therefore covers the event day and the next session, because Fed statements come out after the main US gold futures close. "All days" applies the same periods to every trading day since 1994, as a baseline.