What happens to gold when the Fed cuts interest rates?
Since 1990, gold was higher 3 months after a Fed rate cut in 33 of 58 cases (57%), with a median move of +2.3% and an average of +3.6%. Over all 3-month periods since 1990, it rose 56% of the time, with a median of +1.0%. The next day it was higher in 42 of 58 cases (median +0.6%).
Gold After Fed Rate Cuts: Summary
Move from the close before the event. "All days" is every trading day since 1990, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 58 | 56 |
| Median | +0.6% | +0.6% | +1.1% | +2.3% | +1.3% | +5.0% |
| Average | +0.5% | +0.7% | +2.0% | +3.6% | +4.9% | +8.5% |
| Higher in | 72% (42/58) | 60% (35/58) | 64% (37/58) | 57% (33/58) | 59% (34/58) | 57% (32/56) |
| Best | +5.3% Dec 16, 2008 | +6.5% Oct 31, 2007 | +15.6% Sep 17, 2025 | +22.6% Oct 29, 2008 | +39.6% Sep 18, 2007 | +64.0% Dec 18, 2024 |
| Worst | −5.2% Mar 18, 2008 | −6.4% Mar 18, 2008 | −13.9% Oct 8, 2008 | −12.8% Mar 18, 2008 | −25.8% Mar 18, 2008 | −13.6% Jan 31, 1996 |
| All days: median | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.3% | +1.0% | +2.4% | +5.5% |
| All days: higher in | 52% | 53% | 53% | 56% | 60% | 64% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close before the event, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often gold was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Fed rate cuts | 58 | +0.6% 72% up | +1.1% 64% up | +2.3% 57% up | +5.0% 57% up |
| Scheduled meetings | 32 | +0.6% 66% up | +1.3% 72% up | +4.6% 69% up | +13.5% 73% up |
| Emergency cuts between meetings (since 1994) | 8 | +0.9% 88% up | −0.1% 50% up | 0.0% 50% up | +10.8% 88% up |
| Cuts of 0.25 pt | 36 | +0.5% 67% up | +1.7% 67% up | +1.6% 56% up | −0.4% 44% up |
| Cuts of 0.50 pt or more | 22 | +0.8% 82% up | +1.0% 59% up | +2.7% 59% up | +12.0% 77% up |
Every Case
Fed rate cuts since 1990, newest first. Gold price is the close before the event (US dollars per ounce).
| Date | Decision | Gold before | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2025 | Cut 0.25 pt to 3.50–3.75% | $4,236 | +1.8% | +3.3% | +8.9% | +19.5% | +0.1% | — |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Cut 0.25 pt to 3.75–4.00% | $3,983 | +0.8% | +0.2% | +6.8% | +19.1% | +16.6% | — |
| Sep 17, 2025 | Cut 0.25 pt to 4.00–4.25% | $3,725 | −1.3% | +1.2% | +15.6% | +16.3% | +23.6% | +18.8% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Cut 0.25 pt to 4.25–4.50% | $2,662 | −2.0% | −0.3% | +3.7% | +13.5% | +27.5% | +64.0% |
| Nov 7, 2024 | Cut 0.25 pt to 4.50–4.75% | $2,676 | +0.7% | −3.9% | +0.4% | +9.6% | +20.6% | +49.8% |
| Sep 18, 2024 | Cut 0.50 pt to 4.75–5.00% | $2,592 | +0.9% | +3.6% | +4.4% | +2.7% | +17.4% | +41.9% |
| Mar 15, 2020 | Cut 1.00 pt to 0–0.25% Unscheduled | $1,516 | +0.6% | +3.4% | +14.0% | +14.0% | +29.6% | +14.2% |
| Mar 3, 2020 | Cut 0.50 pt to 1.00–1.25% Unscheduled | $1,592 | +3.1% | +4.2% | −0.9% | +8.9% | +24.3% | +7.8% |
| Oct 30, 2019 | Cut 0.25 pt to 1.50–1.75% | $1,487 | +1.6% | +0.2% | −1.4% | +6.4% | +14.0% | +25.6% |
| Sep 18, 2019 | Cut 0.25 pt to 1.75–2.00% | $1,505 | −0.4% | 0.0% | −0.9% | −2.0% | −1.8% | +29.6% |
| Jul 31, 2019 | Cut 0.25 pt to 2.00–2.25% | $1,430 | −0.6% | +5.4% | +6.8% | +4.0% | +10.8% | +35.9% |
| Dec 16, 2008 | Cut 1.00 pt to 0–0.25% | $826.00 | +5.3% | +2.1% | +0.9% | +10.8% | +13.1% | +38.1% |
| Oct 29, 2008 | Cut 0.50 pt to 1.00% | $730.50 | +3.4% | +3.2% | +11.4% | +22.6% | +22.0% | +44.1% |
| Oct 8, 2008 | Cut 0.50 pt to 1.50% Unscheduled | $876.75 | +0.8% | −3.4% | −13.9% | −3.2% | −0.7% | +14.6% |
| Apr 30, 2008 | Cut 0.25 pt to 2.00% | $880.00 | −3.1% | −1.3% | +0.7% | +4.2% | −19.0% | +2.0% |
| Mar 18, 2008 | Cut 0.75 pt to 2.25% | $1,011 | −5.2% | −6.4% | −6.5% | −12.8% | −25.8% | −11.1% |
| Jan 30, 2008 | Cut 0.50 pt to 3.00% | $924.50 | −0.1% | −2.3% | +3.8% | −4.8% | −0.1% | −7.0% |
| Jan 22, 2008 | Cut 0.75 pt to 3.50% Unscheduled | $871.25 | +2.0% | +6.1% | +5.6% | +5.4% | +10.2% | −5.7% |
| Dec 11, 2007 | Cut 0.25 pt to 4.25% | $809.50 | +0.6% | −0.6% | +10.1% | +19.8% | +8.5% | −5.3% |
| Oct 31, 2007 | Cut 0.25 pt to 4.50% | $783.25 | +0.9% | +6.5% | +1.4% | +17.3% | +12.4% | −8.1% |
| Sep 18, 2007 | Cut 0.50 pt to 4.75% | $719.00 | +0.9% | +1.3% | +6.1% | +9.8% | +39.6% | +7.9% |
| Jun 25, 2003 | Cut 0.25 pt to 1.00% | $348.25 | −1.3% | +0.9% | +2.6% | +10.7% | +17.0% | +13.5% |
| Nov 6, 2002 | Cut 0.50 pt to 1.25% | $318.50 | +0.2% | +1.7% | +1.2% | +20.0% | +7.6% | +21.4% |
| Dec 11, 2001 | Cut 0.25 pt to 1.75% | $272.65 | +0.3% | +2.3% | +4.8% | +7.7% | +18.3% | +17.3% |
| Nov 6, 2001 | Cut 0.50 pt to 2.00% | $278.25 | +0.7% | −0.6% | −1.2% | +4.9% | +11.8% | +14.0% |
| Oct 2, 2001 | Cut 0.50 pt to 2.50% | $290.60 | −0.2% | −0.2% | −4.1% | −4.9% | +4.3% | +12.3% |
| Sep 17, 2001 | Cut 0.50 pt to 3.00% Unscheduled | $285.75 | +1.3% | +0.9% | −1.6% | −4.0% | +1.9% | +12.9% |
| Aug 21, 2001 | Cut 0.25 pt to 3.50% | $276.65 | −0.3% | −2.0% | +4.1% | −0.8% | +8.4% | +13.4% |
| Jun 27, 2001 | Cut 0.25 pt to 3.75% | $274.00 | −1.6% | −2.3% | −2.4% | +5.2% | +0.8% | +17.0% |
| May 15, 2001 | Cut 0.50 pt to 4.00% | $268.35 | +1.0% | +5.9% | +1.5% | +2.7% | +4.3% | +15.7% |
| Apr 18, 2001 | Cut 0.50 pt to 4.50% Unscheduled | $260.55 | +1.0% | +1.1% | +4.8% | +3.1% | +8.2% | +15.3% |
| Mar 20, 2001 | Cut 0.50 pt to 5.00% | $260.55 | +0.6% | +0.6% | +1.0% | +4.2% | +12.6% | +11.8% |
| Jan 31, 2001 | Cut 0.50 pt to 5.50% | $264.95 | +1.0% | −0.7% | +0.5% | −0.4% | +0.4% | +5.3% |
| Jan 3, 2001 | Cut 0.50 pt to 6.00% Unscheduled | $271.10 | −1.5% | −1.8% | −1.3% | −5.6% | −1.0% | +2.4% |
| Nov 17, 1998 | Cut 0.25 pt to 4.75% | $294.85 | +0.6% | +0.5% | −0.3% | −3.1% | −7.1% | −0.2% |
| Oct 15, 1998 | Cut 0.25 pt to 5.00% Unscheduled | $295.30 | +0.9% | −0.8% | +0.6% | −3.2% | −3.8% | +8.7% |
| Sep 29, 1998 | Cut 0.25 pt to 5.25% | $292.25 | +0.5% | +0.8% | +0.3% | −1.8% | −4.1% | +3.2% |
| Jan 31, 1996 | Cut 0.25 pt to 5.25% | $406.55 | +0.6% | +1.9% | −1.5% | −3.5% | −5.2% | −13.6% |
| Dec 19, 1995 | Cut 0.25 pt to 5.50% | $387.20 | +0.1% | −0.1% | +3.9% | +2.0% | −1.0% | −4.9% |
| Jul 6, 1995 | Cut 0.25 pt to 5.75% | $384.25 | +0.4% | +1.3% | −0.1% | −0.5% | +2.6% | −0.8% |
| Sep 4, 1992 | Cut 0.25 pt to 3.00% Not announced | $338.85 | +1.2% | +0.3% | +3.1% | −0.9% | −3.2% | +7.1% |
| Jul 2, 1992 | Cut 0.50 pt to 3.25% Not announced | $343.55 | +0.6% | +1.1% | +4.2% | +1.6% | −3.1% | +10.3% |
| Apr 9, 1992 | Cut 0.25 pt to 3.75% Not announced | $337.50 | +1.3% | −0.2% | −0.7% | +3.3% | +3.7% | 0.0% |
| Dec 20, 1991 | Cut 0.50 pt to 4.00% Not announced | $358.90 | +0.2% | −1.6% | −1.0% | −5.6% | −4.6% | −6.1% |
| Dec 6, 1991 | Cut 0.25 pt to 4.50% Not announced | $364.75 | +1.6% | −1.6% | −3.6% | −4.4% | −7.4% | −8.0% |
| Nov 6, 1991 | Cut 0.25 pt to 4.75% Not announced | $356.55 | −0.6% | 0.0% | +2.3% | −0.2% | −5.5% | −5.3% |
| Oct 31, 1991 | Cut 0.25 pt to 5.00% Not announced | $359.35 | −0.4% | −1.3% | +1.9% | −1.5% | −6.1% | −5.5% |
| Sep 13, 1991 | Cut 0.25 pt to 5.25% Not announced | $346.10 | −0.2% | +0.7% | +3.6% | +5.9% | +0.4% | −1.8% |
| Aug 6, 1991 | Cut 0.25 pt to 5.50% Not announced | $356.50 | +0.1% | +0.1% | −2.6% | 0.0% | −0.1% | −1.1% |
| Apr 30, 1991 | Cut 0.25 pt to 5.75% Not announced | $351.10 | +1.5% | +1.7% | +2.6% | +2.9% | +2.1% | −4.1% |
| Mar 8, 1991 | Cut 0.25 pt to 6.00% Not announced | $366.50 | −0.2% | −0.1% | −0.9% | +1.3% | −4.4% | −4.7% |
| Feb 1, 1991 | Cut 0.50 pt to 6.25% Not announced | $366.00 | +0.3% | +1.1% | −0.2% | −2.9% | −2.2% | −3.3% |
| Jan 9, 1991 | Cut 0.25 pt to 6.75% Not announced | $389.70 | +0.2% | +3.4% | −6.6% | −6.8% | −4.8% | −10.0% |
| Dec 18, 1990 | Cut 0.25 pt to 7.00% Not announced | $376.30 | +0.7% | +1.7% | +0.5% | −3.1% | −2.7% | −5.0% |
| Dec 7, 1990 | Cut 0.25 pt to 7.25% Not announced | $370.00 | +1.1% | +0.9% | +5.6% | −1.1% | +0.5% | −0.6% |
| Nov 13, 1990 | Cut 0.25 pt to 7.50% Not announced | $380.70 | +0.8% | −0.2% | −2.6% | −3.7% | −6.5% | −6.8% |
| Oct 29, 1990 | Cut 0.25 pt to 7.75% Not announced | $373.70 | 0.0% | +0.9% | +2.7% | +0.8% | −4.3% | −4.1% |
| Jul 13, 1990 | Cut 0.25 pt to 8.00% Not announced | $351.45 | +3.4% | +2.7% | +15.0% | +10.4% | +11.1% | +4.7% |
Why Fed rate cuts matter for gold
Lower US interest rates reduce the return on cash and bonds, the main alternative to holding gold, and often weaken the dollar. But cuts usually come because the economy or markets are in trouble, and markets price in expected cuts weeks ahead, so the reaction on the day can go either way.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to gold when the Fed cuts interest rates?
Since 1990, gold was higher 3 months after a Fed rate cut in 33 of 58 cases (57%), with a median move of +2.3% and an average of +3.6%. Over all 3-month periods since 1990, it rose 56% of the time, with a median of +1.0%. The next day it was higher in 42 of 58 cases (median +0.6%).
Does gold always go up after a Fed rate cut?
No. Three months later it was lower in 25 of 58 cases; the worst was −12.8% after March 18, 2008 and the best +22.6% after October 29, 2008. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did gold do after the most recent case?
After cut 0.25 pt to 3.50–3.75% on December 10, 2025, gold moved +1.8% by the next day, +8.9% after a month and +19.5% after three months.
When is the next Fed meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee's next decision is due on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, with the statement at 2:00 pm New York time. See the economic calendar for the other US releases that move gold.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from gold's last daily close before the event to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days after the event day (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months). The "1 day" figure therefore covers the event day and the next session, because Fed statements come out after the main US gold futures close. "All days" applies the same periods to every trading day since 1990, as a baseline.