What happens to gold after it rises 3% in a day?
Since 1971, gold was higher 3 months after a one-day rise of 3% or more in 130 of 243 cases (53%), with a median move of +1.1% and an average of +5.2%. Over all 3-month periods since 1971, it rose 55% of the time, with a median of +0.9%. The next day it was higher in 100 of 244 cases (median −0.3%).
Cases since 1971
244
3% one-day rises
After 1 day (median)
−0.3%
higher in 100 of 244
After 1 month (median)
+0.4%
higher in 126 of 244
After 3 months (median)
+1.1%
higher in 130 of 243
After 12 months (median)
+7.5%
higher in 150 of 237
Where things stand: The most recent rise of 3% or more in our daily closes was on August 5, 2026 (rose 3.7% to $4,305). Today gold is down 3.57%.
Gold After 3% One-Day Rises: Summary
Move from the close on the day of the big move (the big day itself is not counted). "All days" is every trading day since 1971, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 244 | 244 | 244 | 243 | 242 | 237 |
| Median | −0.3% | +0.1% | +0.4% | +1.1% | +5.9% | +7.5% |
| Average | 0.0% | +0.6% | +1.7% | +5.2% | +8.6% | +17.1% |
| Higher in | 41% (100/244) | 50% (123/244) | 52% (126/244) | 53% (130/243) | 60% (145/242) | 63% (150/237) |
| Best | +13.3% Jan 2, 1980 | +34.0% Jan 11, 1980 | +68.4% Dec 11, 1979 | +82.4% Oct 19, 1979 | +119.1% Aug 15, 1979 | +187.6% Feb 5, 1979 |
| Worst | −7.3% Jan 3, 1980 | −20.0% Jan 18, 1980 | −21.1% Feb 21, 1980 | −38.3% Jan 18, 1980 | −30.9% Sep 10, 1981 | −37.1% Sep 22, 1980 |
| All days: median | 0.0% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.9% | +2.6% | +5.9% |
| All days: higher in | 51% | 53% | 52% | 55% | 59% | 61% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close on the big day, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often gold was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 3% one-day rises | 244 | −0.3% 41% up | +0.4% 52% up | +1.1% 53% up | +7.5% 63% up |
| Rises of 3–6% | 212 | −0.3% 41% up | +0.8% 53% up | +1.8% 55% up | +8.0% 65% up |
| Rises of 6% or more | 32 | −0.4% 41% up | −3.0% 41% up | −3.0% 41% up | +5.0% 52% up |
| In an uptrend (above the 200-day average) | 176 | −0.3% 41% up | +0.4% 51% up | +0.3% 51% up | +6.3% 64% up |
| In a downtrend (below the 200-day average) | 68 | −0.3% 41% up | +0.4% 53% up | +2.2% 60% up | +11.0% 62% up |
| First big rise in more than a month | 87 | 0.0% 49% up | +0.8% 56% up | 0.0% 50% up | +6.2% 61% up |
| Within a month of another | 157 | −0.5% 36% up | −0.2% 49% up | +3.2% 55% up | +8.7% 64% up |
| Since 2000 | 73 | 0.0% 49% up | +0.1% 51% up | +0.6% 53% up | +9.7% 73% up |
| Since 2015 | 26 | +0.1% 54% up | +0.2% 50% up | +3.8% 76% up | +6.3% 74% up |
Every Case
3% one-day rises since 1971, newest first. Gold price is the close on the day of the move (US dollars per ounce).
| Date | Event | Gold at that close | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 5, 2026 | Rose 3.7% to $4,305 | $4,305 | −0.1% | +3.8% | +5.5% | — | — | — |
| Jun 12, 2026 | Rose 3.0% to $4,239 | $4,239 | +2.7% | −0.9% | −4.4% | +2.7% | — | — |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Rose 3.6% to $4,813 | $4,813 | −2.8% | +0.1% | −3.5% | −14.3% | −12.7% | — |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Rose 3.4% to $4,552 | $4,552 | −3.9% | +5.7% | +4.1% | −11.1% | −5.6% | — |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Rose 6.1% to $4,935 Twice the threshold | $4,935 | +0.3% | +1.9% | +2.9% | −7.4% | −12.8% | — |
| Jan 28, 2026 | Rose 4.3% to $5,304 | $5,304 | +0.3% | −6.7% | −1.1% | −14.0% | −22.7% | — |
| Jan 20, 2026 | Rose 3.7% to $4,766 | $4,766 | +1.5% | +6.6% | +4.9% | −1.0% | −12.9% | — |
| Oct 20, 2025 | Rose 3.5% to $4,359 | $4,359 | −5.7% | −7.8% | −6.7% | +11.0% | +9.0% | −4.8% |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Rose 3.3% to $4,133 | $4,133 | +0.7% | +5.5% | −0.4% | +11.3% | +16.7% | −0.6% |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Rose 3.2% to $3,400 | $3,400 | +0.8% | +2.7% | +5.7% | +18.1% | +36.8% | +22.1% |
| Jun 2, 2025 | Rose 3.3% to $3,397 | $3,397 | −0.6% | −1.2% | −1.1% | +3.5% | +25.2% | +33.0% |
| May 6, 2025 | Rose 3.0% to $3,423 | $3,423 | −0.9% | −5.1% | −1.4% | +0.3% | +17.3% | +37.1% |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Rose 3.3% to $3,346 | $3,346 | −0.5% | +0.1% | −4.8% | 0.0% | +25.6% | +45.8% |
| Apr 10, 2025 | Rose 3.2% to $3,178 | $3,178 | +2.1% | +4.7% | +1.6% | +5.9% | +25.0% | +50.0% |
| Oct 13, 2023 | Rose 3.1% to $1,942 | $1,942 | −0.4% | +2.7% | +0.4% | +5.7% | +22.7% | +37.3% |
| Dec 1, 2022 | Rose 4.0% to $1,815 | $1,815 | −0.3% | −0.8% | +1.7% | +2.2% | +8.8% | +15.1% |
| Apr 22, 2020 | Rose 3.0% to $1,729 | $1,729 | +0.3% | −1.5% | −0.5% | +7.9% | +10.8% | +3.1% |
| Apr 9, 2020 | Rose 4.3% to $1,736 | $1,736 | +0.5% | −2.7% | −2.4% | +3.8% | +9.2% | −0.2% |
| Apr 2, 2020 | Rose 3.0% to $1,626 | $1,626 | +0.5% | +6.8% | +5.0% | +10.1% | +17.9% | +6.3% |
| Mar 24, 2020 | Rose 5.9% to $1,660 | $1,660 | −1.7% | −4.6% | +4.4% | +7.3% | +14.9% | +4.4% |
| Mar 23, 2020 | Rose 5.6% to $1,567 | $1,567 | +5.9% | +3.5% | +10.3% | +12.7% | +21.9% | +10.1% |
| Mar 3, 2020 | Rose 3.1% to $1,642 | $1,642 | −0.1% | +1.0% | −3.9% | +5.6% | +20.5% | +4.5% |
| Jun 20, 2019 | Rose 3.6% to $1,393 | $1,393 | +0.2% | +1.1% | +2.3% | +7.6% | +5.7% | +25.9% |
| Jun 24, 2016 | Rose 4.7% to $1,322 | $1,322 | +0.2% | +1.3% | −0.1% | +1.1% | −14.4% | −5.2% |
| Feb 11, 2016 | Rose 4.5% to $1,248 | $1,248 | −0.7% | −1.4% | −0.2% | +1.9% | +8.2% | −1.0% |
| Feb 8, 2016 | Rose 3.5% to $1,198 | $1,198 | +0.1% | +0.9% | +5.0% | +5.7% | +12.0% | +1.0% |
| Dec 9, 2014 | Rose 3.1% to $1,232 | $1,232 | −0.2% | −3.1% | −1.3% | −6.5% | −4.2% | −12.7% |
| Dec 1, 2014 | Rose 3.6% to $1,218 | $1,218 | −1.5% | −1.9% | −2.8% | −1.4% | −2.7% | −12.5% |
| Jun 19, 2014 | Rose 3.3% to $1,314 | $1,314 | +0.2% | +0.2% | +0.1% | −6.0% | −9.1% | −8.5% |
| Oct 17, 2013 | Rose 3.1% to $1,322 | $1,322 | −0.4% | +1.9% | −2.5% | −5.3% | −2.5% | −6.1% |
| Sep 18, 2013 | Rose 4.0% to $1,362 | $1,362 | +0.4% | −1.9% | −2.9% | −9.7% | −2.3% | −9.2% |
| Jul 1, 2013 | Rose 4.3% to $1,243 | $1,243 | +0.8% | −0.6% | +6.5% | +6.6% | −2.5% | +6.2% |
| May 22, 2013 | Rose 3.5% to $1,409 | $1,409 | −2.0% | +0.4% | −8.0% | −2.6% | −8.4% | −8.1% |
| Jun 1, 2012 | Rose 3.1% to $1,606 | $1,606 | 0.0% | −1.8% | −0.9% | +3.4% | +9.0% | −13.4% |
| Jan 26, 2012 | Rose 4.7% to $1,727 | $1,727 | −0.1% | +1.4% | +2.9% | −5.2% | −9.0% | −3.0% |
| Jan 3, 2012 | Rose 4.4% to $1,598 | $1,598 | +0.9% | +2.4% | +8.9% | +4.0% | −2.5% | +3.3% |
| Oct 26, 2011 | Rose 3.6% to $1,715 | $1,715 | +0.2% | +1.6% | −1.3% | −3.8% | −3.8% | +2.0% |
| Sep 27, 2011 | Rose 3.8% to $1,659 | $1,659 | −1.0% | −1.3% | +3.4% | −3.2% | +0.3% | +6.7% |
| Aug 26, 2011 | Rose 3.4% to $1,788 | $1,788 | 0.0% | +4.9% | −10.6% | −6.0% | −2.0% | −9.7% |
| Jan 4, 2010 | Rose 3.1% to $1,122 | $1,122 | +0.2% | +2.8% | −0.9% | +0.2% | +10.0% | +23.3% |
| Oct 6, 2009 | Rose 3.3% to $1,039 | $1,039 | +0.1% | +1.8% | +4.9% | +8.1% | +9.1% | +25.9% |
| Mar 19, 2009 | Rose 7.1% to $956.50 Twice the threshold | $956.50 | −0.3% | −1.9% | −8.3% | −1.7% | +4.1% | +15.7% |
| Feb 11, 2009 | Rose 3.1% to $938.00 | $938.00 | +0.6% | +2.8% | −1.4% | −2.2% | +0.7% | +15.5% |
| Jan 30, 2009 | Rose 3.1% to $919.50 | $919.50 | −0.1% | −0.7% | +1.9% | −3.9% | +1.3% | +19.1% |
| Jan 26, 2009 | Rose 3.9% to $910.25 | $910.25 | −1.4% | +0.9% | +8.1% | −0.3% | +4.4% | +24.5% |
| Dec 26, 2008 | Rose 3.2% to $870.40 | $870.40 | +1.1% | −1.9% | +3.1% | +7.8% | +7.7% | +26.9% |
| Dec 17, 2008 | Rose 3.8% to $870.00 | $870.00 | −1.7% | −3.0% | −4.3% | +2.7% | +7.0% | +29.7% |
| Dec 11, 2008 | Rose 3.2% to $827.75 | $827.75 | −0.2% | +3.3% | −0.2% | +11.8% | +14.5% | +43.8% |
| Dec 10, 2008 | Rose 4.5% to $802.25 | $802.25 | +3.2% | +8.4% | +3.1% | +12.1% | +18.9% | +50.7% |
| Nov 24, 2008 | Rose 6.2% to $822.50 Twice the threshold | $822.50 | −0.2% | −5.4% | +2.6% | +19.8% | +16.7% | +38.0% |
| Nov 21, 2008 | Rose 4.9% to $774.50 | $774.50 | +6.2% | +5.2% | +9.6% | +27.7% | +21.0% | +45.9% |
| Nov 19, 2008 | Rose 3.3% to $762.00 | $762.00 | −3.1% | +6.6% | +12.2% | +26.5% | +21.4% | +46.3% |
| Nov 14, 2008 | Rose 4.8% to $747.50 | $747.50 | −1.8% | +3.6% | +10.5% | +25.2% | +23.8% | +48.1% |
| Oct 29, 2008 | Rose 4.6% to $764.00 | $764.00 | −1.1% | −1.3% | +6.5% | +17.2% | +16.6% | +37.8% |
| Oct 8, 2008 | Rose 3.1% to $903.50 | $903.50 | −2.2% | −6.3% | −16.5% | −6.1% | −3.7% | +11.2% |
| Oct 6, 2008 | Rose 5.7% to $875.50 | $875.50 | +0.1% | −5.0% | −15.3% | −2.5% | +2.5% | +13.0% |
| Sep 18, 2008 | Rose 6.2% to $863.00 Twice the threshold | $863.00 | +0.7% | +3.0% | −9.1% | −2.9% | +6.1% | +16.8% |
| Sep 17, 2008 | Rose 4.3% to $813.00 | $813.00 | +6.2% | +10.2% | −1.3% | +1.6% | +13.1% | +21.9% |
| Sep 15, 2008 | Rose 3.3% to $775.00 | $775.00 | +0.6% | +14.7% | +7.4% | +6.8% | +19.4% | +29.1% |
| Aug 20, 2008 | Rose 3.4% to $815.75 | $815.75 | +2.2% | +1.4% | +5.8% | −10.0% | +15.5% | +16.9% |
| Jun 26, 2008 | Rose 3.0% to $909.50 | $909.50 | +1.1% | +2.7% | +1.2% | −1.2% | −8.1% | +2.8% |
| Jul 27, 2006 | Rose 4.0% to $639.00 | $639.00 | −0.3% | +0.8% | −2.8% | −9.9% | +0.5% | +6.7% |
| Jul 12, 2006 | Rose 3.1% to $650.00 | $650.00 | −0.1% | −1.3% | −0.8% | −11.5% | −6.2% | +0.2% |
| Jun 30, 2006 | Rose 4.1% to $613.50 | $613.50 | +1.5% | +2.9% | +3.1% | −3.2% | +1.7% | +6.1% |
| Apr 17, 2006 | Rose 3.8% to $615.40 | $615.40 | −0.1% | +1.2% | +12.4% | +7.8% | −6.7% | +10.1% |
| Mar 30, 2006 | Rose 3.4% to $584.00 | $584.00 | −0.3% | +1.5% | +12.6% | +0.9% | +1.2% | +12.4% |
| Jan 3, 2006 | Rose 3.3% to $530.00 | $530.00 | −0.1% | +2.5% | +7.2% | +9.8% | +15.8% | +17.7% |
| Sep 11, 2001 | Rose 5.7% to $287.00 | $287.00 | −2.8% | +0.8% | +0.1% | −4.5% | +0.7% | +9.2% |
| May 21, 2001 | Rose 6.7% to $291.25 Twice the threshold | $291.25 | −2.4% | −5.3% | −6.8% | −4.7% | −4.5% | +5.9% |
| Jun 2, 2000 | Rose 3.3% to $281.60 | $281.60 | +0.6% | +1.0% | +2.1% | −1.6% | −4.1% | −3.8% |
| Feb 9, 2000 | Rose 4.2% to $308.60 | $308.60 | +0.1% | −2.0% | −5.9% | −10.3% | −11.9% | −14.9% |
| Feb 7, 2000 | Rose 6.5% to $312.70 Twice the threshold | $312.70 | −5.3% | −1.4% | −7.3% | −11.6% | −12.6% | −14.7% |
| Feb 4, 2000 | Rose 3.0% to $293.65 | $293.65 | +6.5% | +6.1% | −1.7% | −5.4% | −6.7% | −8.9% |
| Oct 5, 1999 | Rose 4.1% to $325.50 | $325.50 | −2.2% | −1.6% | −10.6% | −14.2% | −14.9% | −16.6% |
| Sep 28, 1999 | Rose 7.3% to $301.50 Twice the threshold | $301.50 | +1.8% | +8.0% | −3.6% | −3.5% | −6.9% | −8.4% |
| Sep 27, 1999 | Rose 4.1% to $281.10 | $281.10 | +7.3% | +11.3% | +5.4% | +2.2% | +1.1% | −2.2% |
| Jan 26, 1998 | Rose 4.0% to $302.75 | $302.75 | −1.3% | −0.4% | −3.7% | +2.3% | −4.0% | −5.0% |
| May 19, 1993 | Rose 3.8% to $381.90 | $381.90 | −2.1% | −1.9% | −2.9% | −2.7% | −1.9% | +0.4% |
| May 13, 1993 | Rose 3.0% to $367.00 | $367.00 | +0.3% | +1.9% | −1.1% | +2.5% | +2.5% | +4.0% |
| Aug 13, 1990 | Rose 3.8% to $404.30 | $404.30 | +1.8% | +0.9% | −5.5% | −4.6% | −9.3% | −11.4% |
| Jul 13, 1990 | Rose 3.5% to $363.60 | $363.60 | −0.1% | −0.7% | +11.2% | +6.7% | +7.4% | +1.2% |
| Jan 24, 1990 | Rose 3.1% to $420.75 | $420.75 | −1.2% | −1.4% | −0.7% | −11.7% | −11.4% | −10.1% |
| Oct 19, 1987 | Rose 3.4% to $481.00 | $481.00 | −3.5% | −1.2% | −3.4% | −0.8% | −5.0% | −14.1% |
| Jan 2, 1987 | Rose 3.8% to $403.50 | $403.50 | −1.1% | −0.4% | +0.8% | +3.8% | +10.1% | +20.0% |
| Sep 12, 1986 | Rose 4.4% to $419.50 | $419.50 | −1.5% | +2.5% | +3.1% | −6.7% | −2.3% | +9.6% |
| Sep 5, 1986 | Rose 3.8% to $420.80 | $420.80 | −0.5% | −0.3% | +3.8% | −7.4% | −2.4% | +10.4% |
| Aug 11, 1986 | Rose 5.2% to $388.00 | $388.00 | −1.0% | −2.8% | +7.9% | +5.2% | +4.6% | +18.8% |
| Feb 25, 1986 | Rose 3.1% to $352.40 | $352.40 | −1.9% | −4.3% | −2.3% | −2.8% | +7.9% | +13.3% |
| Jan 16, 1986 | Rose 4.7% to $363.00 | $363.00 | −2.9% | −3.5% | −8.7% | −6.4% | −4.4% | +14.7% |
| Jul 29, 1985 | Rose 3.0% to $326.50 | $326.50 | −0.4% | −0.8% | +4.4% | −0.3% | +9.8% | +8.3% |
| Mar 19, 1985 | Rose 6.0% to $316.75 | $316.75 | +2.3% | +2.2% | +3.2% | +0.4% | −0.2% | +10.9% |
| Aug 14, 1984 | Rose 3.1% to $354.00 | $354.00 | −0.9% | −2.3% | −4.8% | −2.3% | −14.5% | −7.8% |
| Nov 30, 1983 | Rose 3.4% to $405.00 | $405.00 | −1.4% | −1.3% | −5.4% | −3.0% | −3.5% | −18.8% |
| Nov 28, 1983 | Rose 4.8% to $394.25 | $394.25 | −0.7% | +0.8% | −3.0% | +1.3% | −2.5% | −14.5% |
| Jul 8, 1983 | Rose 3.3% to $426.00 | $426.00 | +1.1% | −0.9% | −4.1% | −7.5% | −11.9% | −17.1% |
| Mar 2, 1983 | Rose 3.9% to $430.00 | $430.00 | −0.1% | −0.9% | −3.5% | −4.3% | −3.1% | −8.3% |
| Jan 17, 1983 | Rose 3.2% to $498.50 | $498.50 | −2.7% | −4.5% | +2.2% | −11.1% | −15.3% | −26.0% |
| Dec 29, 1982 | Rose 3.3% to $460.50 | $460.50 | −0.8% | +1.0% | +8.5% | −9.2% | −9.6% | −17.0% |
| Nov 29, 1982 | Rose 4.0% to $434.40 | $434.40 | +0.4% | +2.5% | +3.5% | −1.1% | −6.1% | −6.8% |
| Oct 19, 1982 | Rose 3.1% to $441.50 | $441.50 | −4.4% | −5.0% | −6.6% | +9.9% | −1.0% | −11.7% |
| Oct 14, 1982 | Rose 4.5% to $448.00 | $448.00 | −3.5% | −3.5% | −11.2% | +8.3% | −1.9% | −11.8% |
| Oct 8, 1982 | Rose 3.5% to $433.00 | $433.00 | −0.7% | −0.1% | −5.9% | +11.0% | −0.9% | −7.9% |
| Oct 7, 1982 | Rose 3.6% to $418.50 | $418.50 | +3.5% | +7.0% | −0.2% | +15.8% | +3.4% | −4.2% |
| Oct 6, 1982 | Rose 3.5% to $404.00 | $404.00 | +3.6% | +6.1% | +5.1% | +17.3% | +5.6% | −1.6% |
| Sep 22, 1982 | Rose 4.0% to $443.75 | $443.75 | −1.8% | −7.7% | −2.5% | −0.8% | −6.4% | −6.9% |
| Sep 14, 1982 | Rose 3.5% to $454.25 | $454.25 | −2.4% | −6.1% | −5.6% | −4.1% | −7.8% | −10.8% |
| Sep 6, 1982 | Rose 4.2% to $474.00 | $474.00 | +1.5% | −7.4% | −17.7% | −5.9% | −11.9% | −12.8% |
| Sep 3, 1982 | Rose 11.0% to $454.75 Crash-size move | $454.75 | +4.2% | −0.4% | −14.8% | −3.2% | −7.5% | −8.0% |
| Aug 26, 1982 | Rose 4.0% to $417.00 | $417.00 | +0.2% | +9.1% | −0.8% | −1.9% | −2.0% | +0.3% |
| Aug 24, 1982 | Rose 3.4% to $407.75 | $407.75 | −1.7% | −0.6% | +6.9% | +0.7% | +16.5% | +3.8% |
| Aug 20, 1982 | Rose 8.4% to $386.50 Twice the threshold | $386.50 | +2.1% | +8.2% | +10.3% | +5.7% | +25.6% | +10.3% |
| Aug 18, 1982 | Rose 5.9% to $357.75 | $357.75 | −0.3% | +12.1% | +23.4% | +13.9% | +40.7% | +16.8% |
| Jul 21, 1982 | Rose 5.4% to $366.50 | $366.50 | −3.7% | −5.3% | −2.7% | +20.5% | +32.3% | +15.6% |
| Jul 12, 1982 | Rose 4.4% to $343.00 | $343.00 | +2.8% | +1.3% | −1.4% | +26.2% | +40.1% | +24.6% |
| Jul 9, 1982 | Rose 4.8% to $328.50 | $328.50 | +4.4% | +5.6% | +2.3% | +27.4% | +47.5% | +30.6% |
| Apr 30, 1982 | Rose 3.6% to $361.25 | $361.25 | −5.4% | −8.9% | −11.8% | −5.1% | +15.8% | +19.8% |
| Apr 14, 1982 | Rose 3.7% to $366.75 | $366.75 | −1.0% | −5.5% | −9.1% | −3.8% | +20.3% | +19.0% |
| Mar 16, 1982 | Rose 4.0% to $324.50 | $324.50 | −2.6% | +1.5% | +11.8% | −4.8% | +36.6% | +28.4% |
| Sep 21, 1981 | Rose 3.7% to $463.50 | $463.50 | −0.3% | −9.1% | −5.7% | −10.3% | −28.4% | −6.0% |
| Sep 10, 1981 | Rose 3.6% to $451.50 | $451.50 | −0.7% | +1.7% | +0.4% | −9.1% | −30.9% | +0.6% |
| Aug 28, 1981 | Rose 3.2% to $425.00 | $425.00 | −0.8% | +2.7% | +1.6% | −3.2% | −16.8% | −3.6% |
| Aug 19, 1981 | Rose 3.0% to $432.75 | $432.75 | −0.9% | −4.3% | +3.3% | −7.9% | −15.8% | −8.8% |
| Aug 12, 1981 | Rose 4.1% to $417.50 | $417.50 | −2.5% | +3.7% | +7.4% | +0.2% | −10.1% | −18.1% |
| Apr 22, 1981 | Rose 4.2% to $501.00 | $501.00 | −2.5% | −4.7% | −5.6% | −17.9% | −14.4% | −29.8% |
| Feb 4, 1981 | Rose 3.9% to $505.00 | $505.00 | −1.3% | −0.8% | −8.6% | −5.4% | −22.1% | −25.0% |
| Dec 22, 1980 | Rose 3.4% to $594.70 | $594.70 | +1.3% | +0.5% | −11.9% | −9.3% | −27.9% | −33.2% |
| Nov 12, 1980 | Rose 3.5% to $619.50 | $619.50 | +0.4% | +1.6% | −9.9% | −20.9% | −22.3% | −34.7% |
| Sep 22, 1980 | Rose 5.3% to $710.00 | $710.00 | +0.1% | −4.3% | −8.1% | −19.2% | −24.5% | −37.1% |
| Sep 8, 1980 | Rose 3.2% to $672.00 | $672.00 | −0.2% | −0.8% | +0.9% | −6.0% | −27.5% | −32.8% |
| Jun 25, 1980 | Rose 3.2% to $622.50 | $622.50 | +0.3% | +6.3% | +3.3% | +14.2% | −7.6% | −29.0% |
| Jun 13, 1980 | Rose 3.1% to $608.40 | $608.40 | −2.2% | −0.9% | +6.8% | +10.8% | −0.7% | −24.1% |
| Jun 9, 1980 | Rose 4.5% to $623.75 | $623.75 | −3.2% | −4.6% | +10.2% | +4.4% | +0.6% | −25.4% |
| Jun 4, 1980 | Rose 3.4% to $571.50 | $571.50 | +1.8% | +4.3% | +16.1% | +12.0% | +8.4% | −19.5% |
| Jun 2, 1980 | Rose 4.9% to $561.50 | $561.50 | −1.6% | +11.1% | +17.5% | +12.4% | +11.0% | −15.3% |
| May 30, 1980 | Rose 3.1% to $535.50 | $535.50 | +4.9% | +11.5% | +22.0% | +18.6% | +15.1% | −11.5% |
| May 2, 1980 | Rose 4.6% to $512.50 | $512.50 | 0.0% | +0.1% | +11.5% | +21.4% | +25.4% | −6.0% |
| Apr 25, 1980 | Rose 6.9% to $551.50 Twice the threshold | $551.50 | −4.9% | −7.1% | −4.5% | +18.1% | +15.0% | −12.5% |
| Apr 16, 1980 | Rose 4.5% to $520.00 | $520.00 | −1.3% | −2.6% | −0.7% | +20.1% | +28.6% | −8.4% |
| Apr 9, 1980 | Rose 4.9% to $554.00 | $554.00 | −5.1% | −6.1% | −8.3% | +21.1% | +22.4% | −8.2% |
| Apr 8, 1980 | Rose 8.7% to $528.00 Twice the threshold | $528.00 | +4.9% | −5.8% | −2.3% | +30.2% | +27.9% | −2.6% |
| Apr 1, 1980 | Rose 3.0% to $509.50 | $509.50 | −1.8% | +3.2% | +0.6% | +30.2% | +33.9% | +2.0% |
| Mar 24, 1980 | Rose 6.3% to $558.25 Twice the threshold | $558.25 | −2.0% | −11.4% | −7.6% | +11.5% | +27.4% | −5.4% |
| Mar 20, 1980 | Rose 6.5% to $561.00 Twice the threshold | $561.00 | −6.4% | −13.5% | −10.4% | +6.3% | +20.1% | −6.2% |
| Mar 19, 1980 | Rose 9.4% to $527.00 Crash-size move | $527.00 | +6.5% | −3.7% | −4.0% | +14.4% | +27.5% | −1.9% |
| Feb 26, 1980 | Rose 4.2% to $642.25 | $642.25 | −1.0% | −1.7% | −21.0% | −19.1% | −1.3% | −23.4% |
| Feb 21, 1980 | Rose 9.7% to $665.00 Crash-size move | $665.00 | −5.3% | −2.9% | −21.1% | −23.1% | −3.0% | −24.6% |
| Feb 6, 1980 | Rose 3.8% to $709.00 | $709.00 | −1.4% | −1.7% | −11.7% | −27.3% | −11.5% | −29.4% |
| Feb 1, 1980 | Rose 3.5% to $676.00 | $676.00 | −0.9% | +2.4% | −6.3% | −24.2% | −8.0% | −28.1% |
| Jan 29, 1980 | Rose 8.1% to $674.25 Twice the threshold | $674.25 | +2.5% | +1.3% | −5.7% | −23.8% | −4.1% | −26.8% |
| Jan 24, 1980 | Rose 3.2% to $717.00 | $717.00 | −6.8% | −8.9% | −12.1% | −28.1% | −10.3% | −26.3% |
| Jan 18, 1980 | Rose 11.3% to $835.00 Crash-size move | $835.00 | +1.8% | −20.0% | −20.8% | −38.3% | −27.4% | −32.7% |
| Jan 16, 1980 | Rose 11.1% to $760.00 Crash-size move | $760.00 | −1.3% | −8.6% | −10.3% | −31.6% | −17.8% | −26.2% |
| Jan 15, 1980 | Rose 3.6% to $684.00 | $684.00 | +11.1% | +7.8% | +1.9% | −27.3% | −9.4% | −16.4% |
| Jan 14, 1980 | Rose 5.9% to $660.00 | $660.00 | +3.6% | +28.8% | +5.2% | −19.7% | −1.5% | −15.7% |
| Jan 11, 1980 | Rose 3.4% to $623.00 | $623.00 | +5.9% | +34.0% | +14.0% | −14.8% | +7.1% | −9.7% |
| Jan 7, 1980 | Rose 7.7% to $633.50 Twice the threshold | $633.50 | −3.7% | +4.2% | +7.8% | −23.3% | +5.4% | −7.7% |
| Jan 3, 1980 | Rose 13.3% to $634.00 Crash-size move | $634.00 | −7.3% | −5.0% | +6.6% | −19.6% | +4.7% | −5.8% |
| Jan 2, 1980 | Rose 9.3% to $559.50 Crash-size move | $559.50 | +13.3% | +8.5% | +16.7% | −11.6% | +18.2% | +5.0% |
| Dec 28, 1979 | Rose 8.2% to $512.00 Twice the threshold | $512.00 | +9.3% | +19.1% | +35.0% | −4.3% | +28.9% | +15.2% |
| Dec 11, 1979 | Rose 3.3% to $445.50 | $445.50 | +0.2% | +7.2% | +68.4% | +8.6% | +35.2% | +26.3% |
| Dec 3, 1979 | Rose 3.0% to $428.25 | $428.25 | +0.8% | +0.7% | +41.8% | +42.2% | +41.0% | +47.5% |
| Nov 28, 1979 | Rose 4.4% to $411.20 | $411.20 | +0.1% | +3.7% | +43.0% | +53.5% | +41.5% | +54.5% |
| Oct 19, 1979 | Rose 3.3% to $393.00 | $393.00 | −0.3% | −4.6% | −0.8% | +82.4% | +31.2% | +68.1% |
| Oct 10, 1979 | Rose 7.1% to $413.00 Twice the threshold | $413.00 | −2.8% | −6.5% | −5.7% | +65.6% | +20.5% | +64.6% |
| Oct 9, 1979 | Rose 3.7% to $385.80 | $385.80 | +7.1% | +2.2% | +2.4% | +71.1% | +37.3% | +77.6% |
| Oct 1, 1979 | Rose 4.4% to $414.75 | $414.75 | +2.7% | −10.3% | −9.0% | +41.8% | +20.7% | +60.5% |
| Sep 27, 1979 | Rose 5.8% to $395.50 | $395.50 | +0.4% | −2.9% | −5.2% | +41.5% | +25.0% | +68.6% |
| Sep 24, 1979 | Rose 3.1% to $380.40 | $380.40 | −1.0% | +9.0% | +1.2% | +23.9% | +33.4% | +83.4% |
| Sep 18, 1979 | Rose 6.8% to $375.75 Twice the threshold | $375.75 | −1.8% | +0.3% | +2.7% | +21.6% | +49.3% | +79.4% |
| Sep 14, 1979 | Rose 3.9% to $345.80 | $345.80 | +1.7% | +6.7% | +16.5% | +29.0% | +39.2% | +94.6% |
| Aug 22, 1979 | Rose 3.7% to $311.50 | $311.50 | −0.5% | +2.5% | +18.5% | +24.5% | +97.9% | +101.9% |
| Aug 15, 1979 | Rose 3.4% to $301.85 | $301.85 | −1.3% | +3.2% | +14.6% | +28.3% | +119.1% | +102.8% |
| Apr 19, 1979 | Rose 3.3% to $240.90 | $240.90 | −1.9% | +0.5% | +8.8% | +24.2% | +60.2% | +108.6% |
| Feb 5, 1979 | Rose 5.6% to $243.10 | $243.10 | +0.6% | +0.5% | −1.4% | +2.4% | +16.3% | +187.6% |
| Dec 18, 1978 | Rose 3.6% to $212.90 | $212.90 | +1.6% | +3.6% | +8.3% | +13.7% | +32.6% | +120.5% |
| Nov 7, 1978 | Rose 3.0% to $216.35 | $216.35 | +1.1% | −2.5% | −9.3% | +16.3% | +16.6% | +78.0% |
| Oct 30, 1978 | Rose 3.5% to $242.75 | $242.75 | −0.1% | −13.5% | −19.2% | −3.8% | +1.9% | +54.1% |
| Jul 28, 1978 | Rose 3.7% to $201.30 | $201.30 | −0.5% | +0.1% | −0.8% | +16.1% | +17.0% | +51.9% |
| Dec 28, 1977 | Rose 3.4% to $164.80 | $164.80 | +0.7% | +0.5% | +7.0% | +9.1% | +11.8% | +33.8% |
| Nov 10, 1976 | Rose 4.4% to $136.25 | $136.25 | −2.2% | −3.7% | +1.0% | +0.1% | +8.4% | +23.3% |
| Nov 8, 1976 | Rose 3.5% to $131.50 | $131.50 | −0.7% | +5.6% | +3.2% | +3.3% | +11.9% | +27.4% |
| Oct 28, 1976 | Rose 4.2% to $122.75 | $122.75 | +0.3% | +3.5% | +6.1% | +7.6% | +20.7% | +32.4% |
| Sep 21, 1976 | Rose 3.9% to $119.90 | $119.90 | −1.6% | −3.0% | −4.2% | +11.4% | +27.4% | +25.9% |
| Sep 17, 1976 | Rose 4.8% to $119.50 | $119.50 | −3.4% | −0.3% | −2.8% | +10.4% | +25.9% | +26.6% |
| Sep 10, 1976 | Rose 3.3% to $115.70 | $115.70 | −1.1% | +3.3% | −1.0% | +19.0% | +26.6% | +27.8% |
| Sep 6, 1976 | Rose 5.8% to $113.65 | $113.65 | −2.6% | +0.7% | +0.7% | +17.9% | +28.4% | +29.8% |
| Jul 21, 1976 | Rose 4.9% to $113.00 | $113.00 | −1.1% | +0.9% | −3.1% | +2.1% | +17.1% | +29.6% |
| Sep 24, 1975 | Rose 3.1% to $132.75 | $132.75 | +1.3% | +8.1% | +8.6% | +7.3% | +0.6% | −11.1% |
| May 22, 1975 | Rose 3.7% to $174.75 | $174.75 | −0.8% | −4.4% | −7.1% | −6.9% | −20.3% | −28.1% |
| Feb 14, 1975 | Rose 3.0% to $184.00 | $184.00 | −1.4% | +0.4% | −3.4% | −8.8% | −11.9% | −28.7% |
| Jan 8, 1975 | Rose 6.2% to $180.00 Twice the threshold | $180.00 | −0.6% | −1.0% | −3.7% | −3.8% | −7.9% | −24.6% |
| Dec 17, 1974 | Rose 3.0% to $188.50 | $188.50 | −0.8% | +3.4% | −6.8% | −6.0% | −13.8% | −26.3% |
| Nov 8, 1974 | Rose 3.2% to $183.00 | $183.00 | −0.5% | +2.5% | −1.4% | −4.6% | −8.9% | −21.2% |
| Nov 6, 1974 | Rose 5.2% to $178.00 | $178.00 | −0.4% | +4.1% | +0.3% | −2.0% | −7.1% | −18.0% |
| Sep 30, 1974 | Rose 3.8% to $151.25 | $151.25 | +3.0% | +4.1% | +11.2% | +15.7% | +16.7% | −5.1% |
| Aug 14, 1974 | Rose 3.1% to $156.25 | $156.25 | −2.1% | −0.5% | −2.2% | +20.5% | +16.1% | +3.5% |
| Jul 29, 1974 | Rose 5.7% to $157.50 | $157.50 | −0.3% | −2.5% | −2.0% | +6.3% | +12.5% | +5.8% |
| Jul 25, 1974 | Rose 3.3% to $149.00 | $149.00 | 0.0% | +7.0% | +3.4% | +8.7% | +18.5% | +13.0% |
| Jul 9, 1974 | Rose 3.2% to $145.50 | $145.50 | −4.6% | −3.1% | +6.2% | +6.6% | +21.8% | +13.6% |
| Jul 8, 1974 | Rose 5.2% to $141.00 | $141.00 | +3.2% | −1.6% | +9.9% | +11.7% | +27.0% | +15.8% |
| Jun 5, 1974 | Rose 4.7% to $161.75 | $161.75 | −1.7% | −3.2% | −17.2% | −2.6% | +7.7% | +2.6% |
| May 30, 1974 | Rose 4.2% to $162.00 | $162.00 | −3.2% | −1.9% | −11.0% | −4.6% | +12.0% | +2.3% |
| May 9, 1974 | Rose 5.4% to $166.25 | $166.25 | +0.9% | −1.4% | −5.3% | −8.6% | +10.1% | +0.3% |
| Mar 20, 1974 | Rose 4.1% to $176.00 | $176.00 | −0.6% | −1.1% | −0.7% | −13.8% | −17.0% | +0.6% |
| Mar 19, 1974 | Rose 3.0% to $169.00 | $169.00 | +4.1% | +1.9% | +1.8% | −9.1% | −11.5% | +4.3% |
| Mar 7, 1974 | Rose 3.8% to $166.00 | $166.00 | −0.6% | −0.9% | +4.4% | −6.3% | −6.3% | +7.8% |
| Mar 1, 1974 | Rose 3.1% to $167.50 | $167.50 | −0.9% | −1.5% | +3.9% | −7.2% | −5.8% | +6.6% |
| Feb 26, 1974 | Rose 3.2% to $175.00 | $175.00 | −0.6% | −9.1% | −0.6% | −11.1% | −11.8% | +3.9% |
| Feb 25, 1974 | Rose 4.0% to $169.50 | $169.50 | +3.2% | −2.1% | +1.6% | −9.1% | −9.4% | +7.5% |
| Feb 22, 1974 | Rose 4.0% to $163.00 | $163.00 | +4.0% | +2.8% | +8.4% | −0.8% | −5.5% | +12.3% |
| Feb 21, 1974 | Rose 4.5% to $156.75 | $156.75 | +4.0% | +3.7% | +13.2% | +1.8% | −1.4% | +18.0% |
| Feb 5, 1974 | Rose 4.9% to $140.00 | $140.00 | −1.4% | +4.6% | +18.6% | +12.7% | +10.4% | +24.3% |
| Jan 24, 1974 | Rose 4.8% to $141.00 | $141.00 | −0.1% | −6.0% | +20.2% | +19.9% | +5.7% | +26.2% |
| Jan 21, 1974 | Rose 6.3% to $138.25 Twice the threshold | $138.25 | −0.6% | +0.9% | +8.5% | +26.4% | +4.2% | +28.4% |
| Jan 8, 1974 | Rose 4.1% to $126.50 | $126.50 | −2.0% | −0.8% | +9.1% | +32.0% | +9.7% | +42.5% |
| Jan 3, 1974 | Rose 4.1% to $121.25 | $121.25 | −2.3% | −1.0% | +7.6% | +48.0% | +10.5% | +48.5% |
| Jan 2, 1974 | Rose 3.8% to $116.50 | $116.50 | +4.1% | +6.4% | +13.7% | +51.9% | +17.2% | +45.5% |
| Dec 27, 1973 | Rose 4.7% to $111.75 | $111.75 | +0.2% | +6.0% | +24.8% | +56.2% | +29.1% | +56.6% |
| Dec 4, 1973 | Rose 5.2% to $105.50 | $105.50 | −0.5% | −1.3% | +19.9% | +56.4% | +49.2% | +71.1% |
| Nov 28, 1973 | Rose 10.3% to $101.50 Crash-size move | $101.50 | +0.2% | +3.4% | +14.8% | +63.5% | +52.2% | +80.3% |
| Oct 10, 1973 | Rose 3.9% to $103.50 | $103.50 | +0.2% | 0.0% | −5.3% | +20.5% | +66.4% | +49.8% |
| Sep 17, 1973 | Rose 3.7% to $104.00 | $104.00 | −1.0% | −1.9% | −2.1% | +1.0% | +69.2% | +40.4% |
| Aug 29, 1973 | Rose 3.2% to $107.30 | $107.30 | −1.7% | −1.7% | −6.8% | −5.4% | +54.7% | +46.2% |
| Aug 20, 1973 | Rose 5.3% to $109.50 | $109.50 | −3.5% | −5.0% | −5.7% | −17.8% | +48.9% | +40.6% |
| Aug 16, 1973 | Rose 9.6% to $103.00 Crash-size move | $103.00 | +1.0% | −2.7% | 0.0% | −11.4% | +45.6% | +51.0% |
| Jun 26, 1973 | Rose 4.0% to $123.25 | $123.25 | −0.8% | −1.0% | −3.0% | −16.8% | −9.1% | +16.0% |
| Jun 4, 1973 | Rose 4.9% to $123.50 | $123.50 | +2.0% | −6.5% | −1.2% | −14.9% | −18.8% | +25.9% |
| May 29, 1973 | Rose 3.3% to $110.00 | $110.00 | +3.0% | +14.5% | +11.1% | −5.5% | −16.4% | +41.4% |
| May 21, 1973 | Rose 6.2% to $112.00 Twice the threshold | $112.00 | −1.3% | −1.8% | +7.1% | −2.2% | −19.6% | +44.4% |
| May 15, 1973 | Rose 7.6% to $110.00 Twice the threshold | $110.00 | −3.2% | +0.5% | +7.0% | −13.2% | −11.9% | +48.1% |
| May 14, 1973 | Rose 5.7% to $102.25 | $102.25 | +7.6% | +9.5% | +13.0% | −0.2% | −5.1% | +61.9% |
| Mar 26, 1973 | Rose 6.5% to $90.00 Twice the threshold | $90.00 | 0.0% | 0.0% | +0.7% | +35.8% | +12.5% | +93.4% |
| Mar 23, 1973 | Rose 3.4% to $84.50 | $84.50 | +6.5% | +5.6% | +7.2% | +45.9% | +21.3% | +104.7% |
| Mar 15, 1973 | Rose 3.4% to $82.75 | $82.75 | 0.0% | −1.3% | +7.9% | +48.0% | +24.5% | +111.5% |
| Feb 27, 1973 | Rose 3.7% to $83.70 | $83.70 | +1.6% | −0.8% | +5.7% | +37.1% | +26.0% | +90.0% |
| Feb 22, 1973 | Rose 9.1% to $86.50 Crash-size move | $86.50 | −1.7% | −0.9% | −2.3% | +23.1% | +16.8% | +87.9% |
| Feb 21, 1973 | Rose 3.7% to $79.30 | $79.30 | +9.1% | +7.2% | +3.0% | +38.4% | +26.4% | +119.4% |
| Feb 14, 1973 | Rose 5.5% to $72.30 | $72.30 | +1.9% | +19.6% | +14.5% | +45.9% | +43.8% | +116.8% |
| Sep 19, 1972 | Rose 4.9% to $64.25 | $64.25 | +1.2% | −0.5% | +0.9% | −0.5% | +40.1% | +57.6% |
| Jun 7, 1972 | Rose 5.4% to $64.85 | $64.85 | −0.5% | −5.3% | +1.8% | +3.2% | −1.0% | +78.1% |
| Jun 6, 1972 | Rose 3.4% to $61.50 | $61.50 | +5.4% | +0.2% | +7.3% | +8.7% | +3.4% | +90.7% |
| May 17, 1972 | Rose 5.8% to $57.75 | $57.75 | −1.5% | −1.2% | +6.5% | +13.9% | +8.4% | +90.0% |
| May 9, 1972 | Rose 3.1% to $53.70 | $53.70 | −1.1% | +1.7% | +20.1% | +25.7% | +19.5% | +104.8% |
| Aug 9, 1971 | Rose 3.2% to $43.94 | $43.94 | −1.6% | −2.0% | −5.0% | −3.5% | +8.3% | +55.9% |
Why 3% one-day rises matter for gold
Big one-day gains in gold tend to come with fear or a sudden change in rate expectations: a banking or market crisis, a war, a weak economic report, a dovish Fed or a falling dollar. Many come in volatile, falling markets as short-covering bounces, so the trend breakdown matters.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to gold after it rises 3% in a day?
Since 1971, gold was higher 3 months after a one-day rise of 3% or more in 130 of 243 cases (53%), with a median move of +1.1% and an average of +5.2%. Over all 3-month periods since 1971, it rose 55% of the time, with a median of +0.9%. The next day it was higher in 100 of 244 cases (median −0.3%).
Does gold always go up after a 3% one-day jump?
No. Three months later it was lower in 113 of 243 cases; the worst was −38.3% after January 18, 1980 and the best +82.4% after October 19, 1979. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did gold do after the most recent case?
After gold rose 3.7% to $4,305 on August 5, 2026, gold moved −0.1% by the next day, +5.5% after a month. Longer periods will appear here once they have passed.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from gold's close on the day of the big move to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days later (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months), so the big day itself is not counted. A big day is a close-to-close move of 3% or more in the daily closing price. Big days often come in clusters, so many cases share the same weeks; the breakdown separates the first big day in a month from the ones that followed.
More Patterns
After Fed rate cutsAfter Fed rate hikesAfter the first Fed cutAfter the last Fed hikeWhen the Fed holds ratesAfter a record highAfter a 3% one-day dropAfter US electionsAfter presidential electionsAfter midterm elections Gold price history
Sources: Gold prices: the London price from 1968 and this site's daily US-dollar closes (COMEX futures) for recent years. Calculated by Corgano; data through October 30, 2026.