What happens to gold after it falls 3% in a day?
Since 1972, gold was higher 3 months after a one-day fall of 3% or more in 120 of 211 cases (57%), with a median move of +1.4% and an average of +4.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1972, it rose 54% of the time, with a median of +0.7%. The next day it was higher in 126 of 212 cases (median +0.3%).
Cases since 1972
213
3% one-day drops
After 1 day (median)
+0.3%
higher in 126 of 212
After 1 month (median)
+0.8%
higher in 121 of 212
After 3 months (median)
+1.4%
higher in 120 of 211
After 12 months (median)
+4.5%
higher in 115 of 201
Where things stand: The most recent fall of 3% or more in our daily closes was on October 30, 2026 (fell 3.3% to $3,899). Today gold is down 3.57%: if it closes there, today becomes the newest case.
Gold After 3% One-Day Drops: Summary
Move from the close on the day of the big move (the big day itself is not counted). "All days" is every trading day since 1972, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 212 | 212 | 212 | 211 | 207 | 201 |
| Median | +0.3% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +1.4% | +4.7% | +4.5% |
| Average | +0.3% | +0.8% | +1.7% | +4.3% | +9.1% | +12.7% |
| Higher in | 59% (126/212) | 60% (128/212) | 57% (121/212) | 57% (120/211) | 60% (125/207) | 57% (115/201) |
| Best | +9.7% Feb 20, 1980 | +24.7% Dec 20, 1979 | +32.3% Dec 20, 1979 | +74.1% Oct 26, 1979 | +85.5% Oct 1, 1973 | +189.8% Jan 3, 1979 |
| Worst | −7.5% Mar 14, 1980 | −17.3% Mar 10, 1980 | −17.8% Jan 22, 1980 | −31.9% Jan 22, 1980 | −24.1% Sep 28, 1981 | −33.8% Nov 6, 1980 |
| All days: median | 0.0% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.7% | +2.4% | +5.4% |
| All days: higher in | 51% | 53% | 52% | 54% | 58% | 61% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close on the big day, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often gold was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All 3% one-day drops | 213 | +0.3% 59% up | +0.8% 57% up | +1.4% 57% up | +4.5% 57% up |
| Falls of 3–6% | 190 | +0.3% 60% up | +0.5% 56% up | +1.6% 57% up | +5.4% 58% up |
| Falls of 6% or more | 23 | +0.2% 57% up | +1.5% 65% up | +0.4% 52% up | −0.5% 50% up |
| In an uptrend (above the 200-day average) | 151 | +0.3% 59% up | +0.5% 56% up | +0.9% 55% up | +4.4% 58% up |
| In a downtrend (below the 200-day average) | 62 | +0.5% 61% up | +1.4% 59% up | +1.7% 62% up | +6.8% 54% up |
| First big fall in more than a month | 96 | +0.3% 60% up | +0.4% 55% up | +0.6% 52% up | +2.0% 54% up |
| Within a month of another | 117 | +0.3% 59% up | +1.5% 59% up | +1.7% 61% up | +4.9% 59% up |
| Since 2000 | 79 | +0.1% 60% up | +0.8% 55% up | +1.5% 58% up | +10.0% 75% up |
| Since 2015 | 25 | +0.1% 54% up | +1.7% 71% up | +3.1% 57% up | +8.2% 69% up |
Every Case
3% one-day drops since 1972, newest first. Gold price is the close on the day of the move (US dollars per ounce).
| Date | Event | Gold at that close | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2026 | Fell 3.3% to $3,899 | $3,899 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Fell 3.5% to $4,168 | $4,168 | +0.3% | −0.3% | −2.3% | — | — | — |
| Jun 24, 2026 | Fell 3.4% to $4,009 | $4,009 | +1.0% | +1.8% | +1.5% | +7.7% | — | — |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Fell 3.1% to $4,246 | $4,246 | −1.0% | −3.5% | −4.0% | +4.2% | — | — |
| Jun 10, 2026 | Fell 3.6% to $4,133 | $4,133 | −0.5% | +6.0% | −3.1% | +6.6% | — | — |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Fell 3.1% to $4,365 | $4,365 | 0.0% | −2.9% | −6.5% | +2.5% | — | — |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Fell 3.9% to $4,376 | $4,376 | +2.7% | +6.9% | +7.3% | −6.4% | −1.3% | — |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Fell 3.7% to $4,407 | $4,407 | −0.1% | +2.7% | +7.8% | −5.9% | −0.7% | — |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Fell 5.9% to $4,606 | $4,606 | −0.7% | −5.0% | +4.8% | −7.8% | −3.9% | — |
| Mar 3, 2026 | Fell 3.5% to $5,124 | $5,124 | +0.2% | +2.3% | −6.1% | −11.8% | −14.2% | — |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Fell 10.8% to $4,745 Crash-size move | $4,745 | −1.9% | +4.9% | +8.0% | −2.1% | −13.8% | — |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Fell 4.6% to $4,344 | $4,344 | +1.0% | +3.5% | +22.4% | +7.0% | −6.0% | — |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Fell 5.7% to $4,109 | $4,109 | −1.1% | −3.1% | −0.6% | +19.6% | +15.0% | −1.2% |
| May 12, 2025 | Fell 3.5% to $3,228 | $3,228 | +0.6% | +0.2% | +3.6% | +5.5% | +24.2% | +45.2% |
| Apr 23, 2025 | Fell 3.7% to $3,294 | $3,294 | +1.7% | +0.8% | 0.0% | +3.1% | +24.7% | +43.4% |
| Nov 25, 2024 | Fell 3.5% to $2,619 | $2,619 | +0.1% | +1.9% | +1.4% | +10.6% | +26.7% | +58.1% |
| Jun 17, 2021 | Fell 4.7% to $1,775 | $1,775 | −0.3% | +0.1% | +1.9% | −1.0% | −0.6% | +4.2% |
| Jan 8, 2021 | Fell 4.1% to $1,835 | $1,835 | +0.8% | −0.3% | +0.1% | −5.6% | −1.6% | −2.1% |
| Nov 9, 2020 | Fell 5.0% to $1,854 | $1,854 | +1.2% | +1.8% | −0.9% | −0.6% | −1.7% | −1.3% |
| Aug 11, 2020 | Fell 4.6% to $1,946 | $1,946 | +0.1% | +3.4% | +0.9% | −4.7% | −5.3% | −9.9% |
| Mar 18, 2020 | Fell 3.1% to $1,477 | $1,477 | +0.1% | +10.5% | +14.3% | +17.5% | +33.4% | +17.3% |
| Mar 13, 2020 | Fell 4.6% to $1,516 | $1,516 | −2.0% | −2.1% | +15.9% | +14.6% | +28.5% | +14.1% |
| Mar 12, 2020 | Fell 3.2% to $1,589 | $1,589 | −4.6% | −7.0% | +9.8% | +9.5% | +23.6% | +8.2% |
| Feb 28, 2020 | Fell 4.6% to $1,564 | $1,564 | +1.8% | +6.8% | +3.7% | +12.0% | +23.6% | +10.2% |
| Oct 4, 2016 | Fell 3.3% to $1,268 | $1,268 | −0.1% | −1.2% | +2.2% | −9.2% | −2.0% | +3.1% |
| Dec 19, 2013 | Fell 3.4% to $1,194 | $1,194 | +0.8% | +1.7% | +3.8% | +9.8% | +10.5% | +0.1% |
| Sep 20, 2013 | Fell 3.0% to $1,325 | $1,325 | −0.2% | +0.8% | −0.7% | −9.9% | −1.1% | −8.2% |
| Jul 5, 2013 | Fell 3.1% to $1,213 | $1,213 | +1.9% | +5.5% | +7.6% | +8.6% | +1.0% | +8.9% |
| Jun 28, 2013 | Fell 3.3% to $1,192 | $1,192 | +4.3% | +1.7% | +11.6% | +12.1% | +0.9% | +10.5% |
| Jun 26, 2013 | Fell 3.3% to $1,236 | $1,236 | −0.3% | +1.1% | +7.3% | +7.0% | −2.6% | +6.9% |
| Jun 20, 2013 | Fell 5.8% to $1,293 | $1,293 | +0.2% | −4.6% | +0.3% | +1.3% | −3.7% | −1.5% |
| Apr 15, 2013 | Fell 9.2% to $1,395 Crash-size move | $1,395 | −1.1% | +2.1% | +2.8% | −8.3% | −6.3% | −5.3% |
| Apr 4, 2012 | Fell 3.3% to $1,621 | $1,621 | +0.6% | +2.9% | +1.4% | −0.2% | +9.6% | −1.1% |
| Mar 1, 2012 | Fell 3.2% to $1,714 | $1,714 | −0.4% | −1.4% | −3.0% | −10.2% | −2.4% | −8.0% |
| Dec 14, 2011 | Fell 4.2% to $1,603 | $1,603 | −1.8% | +0.3% | +2.4% | +2.6% | 0.0% | +5.7% |
| Oct 18, 2011 | Fell 3.0% to $1,631 | $1,631 | +1.3% | +1.5% | +7.7% | +1.5% | +1.3% | +8.8% |
| Sep 26, 2011 | Fell 5.4% to $1,598 | $1,598 | +3.8% | +3.6% | +3.6% | +0.5% | +2.3% | +10.8% |
| Sep 22, 2011 | Fell 4.0% to $1,722 | $1,722 | −1.9% | −6.3% | −4.6% | −6.3% | −3.8% | +0.7% |
| Sep 7, 2011 | Fell 4.5% to $1,810 | $1,810 | +2.5% | +0.5% | −9.7% | −3.6% | −5.8% | −8.3% |
| Aug 24, 2011 | Fell 5.7% to $1,770 | $1,770 | −2.3% | +2.5% | −2.7% | −3.8% | −2.1% | −9.5% |
| Dec 7, 2009 | Fell 4.0% to $1,143 | $1,143 | +0.4% | −1.6% | −1.1% | −1.5% | +6.3% | +21.1% |
| Apr 6, 2009 | Fell 3.8% to $870.25 | $870.25 | +1.1% | +2.0% | +4.6% | +6.2% | +15.5% | +27.2% |
| Feb 26, 2009 | Fell 4.3% to $936.50 | $936.50 | +1.7% | −2.5% | −1.3% | +2.3% | +1.5% | +18.8% |
| Dec 5, 2008 | Fell 3.1% to $749.00 | $749.00 | +2.4% | +10.3% | +13.3% | +25.0% | +28.4% | +57.0% |
| Dec 1, 2008 | Fell 4.5% to $778.00 | $778.00 | +0.3% | −1.4% | +11.8% | +20.5% | +26.2% | +49.5% |
| Nov 20, 2008 | Fell 3.1% to $738.00 | $738.00 | +4.9% | +10.3% | +13.2% | +32.9% | +27.3% | +49.6% |
| Oct 31, 2008 | Fell 3.2% to $730.75 | $730.75 | −0.2% | +0.6% | +6.5% | +25.8% | +20.9% | +44.2% |
| Oct 23, 2008 | Fell 3.2% to $720.00 | $720.00 | −1.0% | +4.9% | +7.6% | +19.4% | +23.1% | +45.5% |
| Oct 22, 2008 | Fell 3.6% to $744.00 | $744.00 | −3.2% | +2.7% | −0.8% | +14.1% | +19.5% | +41.6% |
| Oct 16, 2008 | Fell 5.3% to $802.50 | $802.50 | −2.2% | −10.3% | −6.9% | +0.9% | +11.0% | +31.0% |
| Oct 13, 2008 | Fell 7.7% to $831.50 Twice the threshold | $831.50 | +0.1% | −4.4% | −11.8% | −0.5% | +5.9% | +24.9% |
| Oct 2, 2008 | Fell 3.2% to $852.00 | $852.00 | −2.8% | +3.7% | −14.2% | +2.1% | +7.6% | +16.4% |
| Sep 11, 2008 | Fell 4.5% to $740.75 | $740.75 | +1.3% | +16.5% | +21.6% | +3.6% | +21.7% | +33.5% |
| Sep 9, 2008 | Fell 3.2% to $781.75 | $781.75 | −0.8% | −0.3% | +15.6% | −4.2% | +19.7% | +23.4% |
| Aug 15, 2008 | Fell 3.9% to $786.50 | $786.50 | +1.2% | +4.8% | −1.5% | −7.9% | +19.3% | +20.2% |
| Aug 12, 2008 | Fell 4.1% to $817.75 | $817.75 | +0.1% | −3.5% | −5.1% | −10.1% | +11.6% | +17.5% |
| Jul 23, 2008 | Fell 3.6% to $926.50 | $926.50 | +0.2% | −3.1% | −10.0% | −14.2% | −10.1% | +0.9% |
| Apr 18, 2008 | Fell 3.9% to $908.75 | $908.75 | +1.1% | −1.9% | −0.2% | +6.2% | −8.4% | −1.5% |
| Apr 1, 2008 | Fell 4.9% to $887.75 | $887.75 | +0.3% | +3.1% | −1.9% | +4.8% | +0.1% | +4.1% |
| Mar 20, 2008 | Fell 3.4% to $925.75 | $925.75 | −0.8% | +0.9% | −0.8% | −2.5% | −15.8% | +0.2% |
| Mar 19, 2008 | Fell 4.8% to $958.50 | $958.50 | −3.4% | −1.2% | −5.2% | −7.4% | −19.1% | −3.5% |
| Nov 12, 2007 | Fell 3.4% to $803.50 | $803.50 | +0.1% | −3.1% | +0.7% | +14.3% | +9.0% | −7.7% |
| Jan 5, 2007 | Fell 3.1% to $609.50 | $609.50 | 0.0% | +1.7% | +6.5% | +10.3% | +7.3% | +36.8% |
| Oct 3, 2006 | Fell 3.1% to $582.25 | $582.25 | −1.5% | −1.9% | +5.5% | +9.9% | +13.7% | +26.2% |
| Sep 11, 2006 | Fell 3.6% to $588.00 | $588.00 | +0.5% | −1.3% | −2.8% | +6.8% | +11.3% | +15.4% |
| Aug 14, 2006 | Fell 3.1% to $624.60 | $624.60 | +0.1% | +0.1% | −5.4% | +0.1% | +5.0% | +6.9% |
| Jul 24, 2006 | Fell 4.5% to $605.70 | $605.70 | +2.2% | +4.4% | +2.8% | −1.4% | +4.8% | +10.0% |
| Jun 14, 2006 | Fell 3.2% to $567.75 | $567.75 | +0.3% | +1.2% | +14.4% | +3.6% | +10.6% | +17.8% |
| Jun 13, 2006 | Fell 3.7% to $586.50 | $586.50 | −3.2% | −3.3% | +10.8% | +4.0% | +8.4% | +14.2% |
| Jun 1, 2006 | Fell 4.3% to $625.00 | $625.00 | +1.2% | −1.8% | −1.8% | −1.9% | +2.3% | +5.4% |
| May 19, 2006 | Fell 6.1% to $651.50 Twice the threshold | $651.50 | +0.2% | −1.4% | −13.0% | −4.0% | −3.8% | +2.9% |
| May 15, 2006 | Fell 5.2% to $687.50 | $687.50 | +0.7% | −5.1% | −17.4% | −6.3% | −9.4% | −0.5% |
| Dec 8, 2004 | Fell 3.3% to $436.90 | $436.90 | 0.0% | +0.5% | −3.4% | +0.1% | −2.9% | +13.4% |
| Oct 6, 2003 | Fell 3.4% to $371.30 | $371.30 | +1.3% | −0.3% | +1.8% | +14.3% | +12.8% | +11.9% |
| May 28, 2003 | Fell 3.2% to $359.50 | $359.50 | +1.0% | +1.3% | −4.4% | +0.5% | +9.7% | +7.2% |
| Mar 13, 2003 | Fell 3.4% to $334.50 | $334.50 | +0.2% | +0.4% | −2.9% | +5.3% | +14.3% | +19.5% |
| May 25, 2001 | Fell 3.4% to $276.25 | $276.25 | −0.2% | −3.5% | −0.8% | −0.5% | −1.2% | +12.8% |
| Feb 8, 2000 | Fell 5.3% to $296.25 | $296.25 | +4.2% | +2.7% | −1.7% | −6.3% | −7.8% | −10.4% |
| Jan 4, 2000 | Fell 3.0% to $281.50 | $281.50 | −0.4% | +0.3% | +1.5% | −1.7% | +1.8% | −2.5% |
| Aug 5, 1993 | Fell 3.7% to $387.75 | $387.75 | −2.2% | −3.0% | −6.1% | −6.2% | +0.2% | −2.4% |
| Jan 17, 1991 | Fell 6.0% to $379.00 | $379.00 | −0.2% | −1.6% | −3.6% | −5.2% | −2.6% | −5.9% |
| Oct 16, 1990 | Fell 4.2% to $364.75 | $364.75 | +0.3% | +1.9% | +5.3% | +10.5% | −1.1% | −2.0% |
| Aug 28, 1990 | Fell 5.4% to $388.25 | $388.25 | −1.0% | −1.8% | +3.7% | −1.2% | −7.9% | −8.9% |
| Aug 15, 1990 | Fell 3.2% to $398.40 | $398.40 | +1.1% | +2.6% | −3.1% | −3.7% | −7.9% | −10.7% |
| Mar 26, 1990 | Fell 5.9% to $370.25 | $370.25 | −0.6% | −0.5% | +0.4% | −5.3% | +9.0% | −3.0% |
| Oct 20, 1987 | Fell 3.5% to $464.30 | $464.30 | +0.6% | +2.1% | −0.1% | +2.9% | −1.5% | −11.4% |
| May 26, 1987 | Fell 3.8% to $449.00 | $449.00 | +0.1% | +1.3% | −1.6% | +1.4% | +3.6% | +1.8% |
| Apr 28, 1987 | Fell 4.6% to $453.00 | $453.00 | −0.9% | +0.7% | −0.4% | +0.7% | +4.9% | −1.3% |
| Nov 17, 1986 | Fell 3.9% to $392.50 | $392.50 | −0.4% | −3.1% | +0.2% | +1.2% | +21.1% | +17.7% |
| Oct 24, 1986 | Fell 3.0% to $410.50 | $410.50 | −0.2% | −2.3% | −7.3% | −1.1% | +15.7% | +14.6% |
| Sep 11, 1986 | Fell 3.9% to $402.00 | $402.00 | +4.4% | +3.9% | +7.2% | −3.8% | +1.3% | +14.5% |
| Apr 1, 1986 | Fell 3.2% to $333.10 | $333.10 | +0.7% | +1.9% | +3.8% | +3.6% | +28.2% | +25.0% |
| Feb 25, 1985 | Fell 4.7% to $284.25 | $284.25 | +0.5% | +1.5% | +13.9% | +9.8% | +18.2% | +20.2% |
| Jul 9, 1984 | Fell 4.2% to $338.50 | $338.50 | +1.7% | +3.4% | +1.0% | +1.6% | −11.9% | −8.6% |
| Jul 6, 1984 | Fell 3.2% to $353.25 | $353.25 | −4.2% | −2.3% | −1.1% | −2.0% | −14.2% | −11.8% |
| Dec 9, 1983 | Fell 3.1% to $388.75 | $388.75 | +0.6% | −3.0% | −5.2% | +1.8% | −3.8% | −15.9% |
| Oct 3, 1983 | Fell 4.0% to $389.00 | $389.00 | +1.2% | +3.1% | −2.9% | −1.5% | −0.1% | −11.2% |
| Jun 1, 1983 | Fell 6.3% to $410.00 Twice the threshold | $410.00 | +0.6% | −1.7% | +1.5% | +2.0% | −8.3% | −5.8% |
| Mar 16, 1983 | Fell 3.6% to $419.00 | $419.00 | −0.6% | −2.1% | +5.7% | −0.8% | −3.3% | −4.6% |
| Mar 11, 1983 | Fell 3.3% to $420.50 | $420.50 | +1.9% | +0.3% | +2.1% | −3.0% | −1.1% | −4.9% |
| Mar 4, 1983 | Fell 4.0% to $412.50 | $412.50 | +2.0% | +1.9% | +3.9% | −3.0% | +1.6% | −3.3% |
| Feb 28, 1983 | Fell 12.1% to $408.50 Crash-size move | $408.50 | +1.3% | +3.0% | +1.0% | +0.4% | +2.4% | −3.7% |
| Feb 23, 1983 | Fell 3.1% to $470.25 | $470.25 | +1.0% | −8.6% | −11.6% | −6.4% | −9.8% | −15.9% |
| Feb 22, 1983 | Fell 3.8% to $485.50 | $485.50 | −3.1% | −14.7% | −15.6% | −9.0% | −12.2% | −19.9% |
| Oct 20, 1982 | Fell 4.4% to $422.00 | $422.00 | +2.5% | −1.0% | −3.2% | +12.8% | +4.6% | −6.6% |
| Oct 15, 1982 | Fell 3.5% to $432.50 | $432.50 | −1.0% | −1.0% | −6.8% | +14.6% | +0.3% | −8.2% |
| Oct 4, 1982 | Fell 3.6% to $387.50 | $387.50 | +0.7% | +11.0% | +11.2% | +17.3% | +9.9% | +0.5% |
| Sep 30, 1982 | Fell 3.1% to $397.00 | $397.00 | +1.3% | +5.4% | +6.6% | +13.2% | +7.5% | −2.0% |
| Sep 27, 1982 | Fell 4.0% to $413.75 | $413.75 | −0.8% | −6.3% | +1.3% | +7.7% | −0.2% | 0.0% |
| Sep 20, 1982 | Fell 3.9% to $424.25 | $424.25 | +0.5% | −2.5% | +4.1% | +3.8% | −0.7% | −3.1% |
| Sep 13, 1982 | Fell 3.1% to $439.00 | $439.00 | +3.5% | −3.4% | +0.5% | −0.3% | −1.0% | −8.5% |
| Sep 8, 1982 | Fell 4.8% to $458.00 | $458.00 | +1.7% | −3.2% | −8.6% | −2.8% | −5.1% | −9.4% |
| Jul 26, 1982 | Fell 3.0% to $352.25 | $352.25 | −0.3% | −0.3% | +15.8% | +21.5% | +38.1% | +21.0% |
| Jul 22, 1982 | Fell 3.7% to $353.00 | $353.00 | +2.9% | −3.0% | +9.5% | +19.5% | +34.8% | +19.5% |
| Jun 21, 1982 | Fell 3.9% to $296.75 | $296.75 | +2.4% | +2.4% | +17.2% | +48.8% | +47.4% | +41.7% |
| May 4, 1982 | Fell 5.4% to $341.75 | $341.75 | −1.0% | −2.8% | −6.3% | +2.8% | +23.8% | +26.9% |
| Apr 20, 1982 | Fell 3.9% to $343.00 | $343.00 | +1.1% | +2.6% | −0.1% | +1.4% | +24.9% | +28.1% |
| Mar 15, 1982 | Fell 3.5% to $312.00 | $312.00 | +4.0% | +2.8% | +16.4% | +1.6% | +45.6% | +34.3% |
| Mar 8, 1982 | Fell 3.5% to $330.50 | $330.50 | −0.4% | −5.6% | +4.5% | −1.4% | +45.5% | +28.9% |
| Sep 28, 1981 | Fell 6.4% to $421.50 Twice the threshold | $421.50 | +2.4% | +4.7% | +1.4% | −5.7% | −24.1% | −5.8% |
| Aug 3, 1981 | Fell 3.3% to $392.50 | $392.50 | −0.3% | +0.3% | +9.6% | +8.8% | −2.2% | −11.7% |
| Jun 25, 1981 | Fell 3.4% to $446.50 | $446.50 | −1.0% | −7.2% | −8.7% | −0.1% | −10.3% | −28.9% |
| Apr 13, 1981 | Fell 4.0% to $473.70 | $473.70 | +2.0% | +5.8% | +2.4% | −13.0% | −6.2% | −27.6% |
| Apr 7, 1981 | Fell 3.7% to $514.20 | $514.20 | −1.1% | −6.1% | −4.1% | −21.0% | −13.8% | −28.7% |
| Mar 2, 1981 | Fell 4.8% to $465.50 | $465.50 | +1.2% | +1.9% | +10.4% | +2.1% | −7.6% | −26.4% |
| Feb 11, 1981 | Fell 3.6% to $501.00 | $501.00 | −2.1% | +0.8% | −4.6% | −4.9% | −18.7% | −25.1% |
| Jan 29, 1981 | Fell 5.7% to $493.75 | $493.75 | +2.6% | +1.0% | −1.0% | −2.2% | −17.8% | −23.4% |
| Jan 26, 1981 | Fell 4.4% to $528.50 | $528.50 | −0.9% | −6.6% | −4.8% | −8.6% | −22.7% | −26.8% |
| Dec 16, 1980 | Fell 3.1% to $561.00 | $561.00 | +2.6% | +7.4% | +3.0% | −7.9% | −16.8% | −26.8% |
| Dec 11, 1980 | Fell 3.6% to $558.00 | $558.00 | +0.9% | +2.8% | +0.5% | −11.6% | −17.7% | −25.3% |
| Dec 10, 1980 | Fell 4.1% to $579.00 | $579.00 | −3.6% | −0.6% | −1.3% | −13.7% | −20.3% | −28.6% |
| Nov 7, 1980 | Fell 5.7% to $596.00 | $596.00 | +2.7% | +2.8% | +3.6% | −15.9% | −20.1% | −30.9% |
| Nov 6, 1980 | Fell 3.1% to $632.00 | $632.00 | −5.7% | −1.6% | −2.4% | −17.8% | −23.4% | −33.8% |
| Oct 23, 1980 | Fell 3.9% to $634.50 | $634.50 | −0.2% | +1.3% | 0.0% | −17.4% | −23.9% | −32.6% |
| Jul 18, 1980 | Fell 3.4% to $606.00 | $606.00 | +1.9% | +7.5% | +1.0% | +11.2% | −7.3% | −33.0% |
| Jul 15, 1980 | Fell 4.7% to $619.50 | $619.50 | +0.8% | −1.0% | −0.7% | +9.7% | −7.7% | −32.5% |
| Jun 10, 1980 | Fell 3.2% to $604.00 | $604.00 | −1.3% | −2.0% | +11.1% | +11.3% | +4.6% | −23.1% |
| May 1, 1980 | Fell 5.4% to $490.00 | $490.00 | +4.6% | +3.7% | +12.8% | +25.4% | +31.4% | −2.8% |
| Apr 28, 1980 | Fell 4.9% to $524.25 | $524.25 | −2.0% | −2.2% | −0.9% | +22.7% | +20.7% | −9.0% |
| Apr 15, 1980 | Fell 6.1% to $497.50 Twice the threshold | $497.50 | +4.5% | +1.0% | +3.9% | +24.5% | +36.6% | −2.9% |
| Apr 10, 1980 | Fell 5.1% to $526.00 | $526.00 | +0.9% | −2.5% | −2.4% | +24.8% | +28.7% | −4.4% |
| Mar 27, 1980 | Fell 4.4% to $485.25 | $485.25 | +1.0% | +0.1% | +5.9% | +34.7% | +44.0% | +8.5% |
| Mar 26, 1980 | Fell 7.3% to $507.50 Twice the threshold | $507.50 | −4.4% | −1.4% | +3.3% | +25.6% | +37.5% | +6.1% |
| Mar 21, 1980 | Fell 6.4% to $525.00 Twice the threshold | $525.00 | +6.3% | −6.7% | −3.5% | +14.9% | +35.2% | +2.1% |
| Mar 17, 1980 | Fell 7.5% to $484.00 Twice the threshold | $484.00 | −0.5% | +15.3% | +6.0% | +24.5% | +38.0% | +4.5% |
| Mar 14, 1980 | Fell 6.0% to $523.00 Twice the threshold | $523.00 | −7.5% | +0.4% | −0.6% | +13.1% | +27.4% | −5.7% |
| Mar 13, 1980 | Fell 5.0% to $556.50 | $556.50 | −6.0% | +0.8% | −10.6% | +6.9% | +23.2% | −10.2% |
| Mar 10, 1980 | Fell 3.9% to $585.00 | $585.00 | −2.5% | −17.3% | −10.1% | +1.9% | +14.6% | −18.6% |
| Feb 22, 1980 | Fell 5.3% to $630.00 | $630.00 | −2.1% | +1.1% | −11.4% | −18.3% | +1.5% | −20.2% |
| Feb 20, 1980 | Fell 7.1% to $606.00 Twice the threshold | $606.00 | +9.7% | +5.0% | −7.4% | −17.3% | +4.7% | −15.6% |
| Jan 31, 1980 | Fell 5.5% to $653.00 | $653.00 | +3.5% | +7.1% | −2.5% | −25.0% | −5.9% | −24.4% |
| Jan 28, 1980 | Fell 6.6% to $624.00 Twice the threshold | $624.00 | +8.1% | +7.3% | +2.9% | −16.0% | +3.1% | −16.1% |
| Jan 25, 1980 | Fell 6.8% to $668.00 Twice the threshold | $668.00 | −6.6% | +1.2% | −7.7% | −17.4% | −2.5% | −21.6% |
| Jan 23, 1980 | Fell 5.8% to $695.00 | $695.00 | +3.2% | −0.6% | −4.3% | −27.1% | −9.2% | −20.4% |
| Jan 22, 1980 | Fell 13.2% to $737.50 Crash-size move | $737.50 | −5.8% | −8.6% | −17.8% | −31.9% | −16.9% | −23.5% |
| Jan 8, 1980 | Fell 3.7% to $610.00 | $610.00 | −0.5% | +12.1% | +16.2% | −13.4% | +12.7% | −5.8% |
| Jan 4, 1980 | Fell 7.3% to $588.00 Twice the threshold | $588.00 | +7.7% | +6.0% | +13.9% | −14.9% | +13.4% | +1.9% |
| Dec 20, 1979 | Fell 3.5% to $471.50 | $471.50 | +0.3% | +24.7% | +32.3% | +7.6% | +35.2% | +27.8% |
| Oct 26, 1979 | Fell 4.3% to $375.00 | $375.00 | −0.3% | −0.6% | +5.4% | +74.1% | +30.7% | +71.7% |
| Oct 8, 1979 | Fell 3.4% to $372.00 | $372.00 | +3.7% | +8.3% | +3.5% | +67.5% | +42.6% | +85.5% |
| Oct 4, 1979 | Fell 4.5% to $384.00 | $384.00 | +0.3% | +4.6% | −2.9% | +58.1% | +44.3% | +76.6% |
| Oct 3, 1979 | Fell 5.6% to $402.00 | $402.00 | −4.5% | +2.7% | −5.8% | +51.7% | +31.3% | +68.0% |
| Mar 5, 1979 | Fell 4.0% to $238.15 | $238.15 | +0.7% | +0.8% | +0.8% | +17.6% | +36.5% | +162.9% |
| Jan 3, 1979 | Fell 3.6% to $218.60 | $218.60 | +2.1% | +1.0% | +4.9% | +9.7% | +29.7% | +189.8% |
| Nov 16, 1978 | Fell 3.8% to $196.30 | $196.30 | +0.8% | +3.2% | +4.7% | +25.9% | +33.5% | +96.6% |
| Nov 15, 1978 | Fell 3.2% to $204.15 | $204.15 | −3.8% | −2.5% | −0.1% | +21.4% | +25.6% | +91.0% |
| Nov 10, 1978 | Fell 3.5% to $206.25 | $206.25 | +0.9% | −4.0% | +0.4% | +18.4% | +23.9% | +88.8% |
| Nov 1, 1978 | Fell 6.2% to $227.50 Twice the threshold | $227.50 | −2.6% | −3.8% | −15.0% | +0.8% | +8.4% | +67.9% |
| Aug 23, 1978 | Fell 3.5% to $200.20 | $200.20 | +1.4% | +4.2% | +7.1% | 0.0% | +25.2% | +55.6% |
| Aug 21, 1978 | Fell 3.2% to $204.90 | $204.90 | +1.2% | −2.5% | +4.2% | −3.4% | +21.1% | +45.8% |
| Aug 17, 1978 | Fell 3.1% to $209.00 | $209.00 | +1.3% | −2.9% | +0.5% | −2.3% | +18.5% | +42.5% |
| Apr 20, 1978 | Fell 3.5% to $168.55 | $168.55 | +1.4% | +0.8% | +6.3% | +11.8% | +35.9% | +42.9% |
| Jan 5, 1978 | Fell 3.6% to $165.70 | $165.70 | +2.5% | +4.7% | +5.8% | +9.2% | +10.3% | +34.7% |
| Nov 16, 1976 | Fell 4.1% to $133.20 | $133.20 | −1.5% | +0.2% | +0.9% | +2.6% | +10.6% | +19.1% |
| Sep 20, 1976 | Fell 3.4% to $115.40 | $115.40 | +3.9% | +3.0% | 0.0% | +14.7% | +32.4% | +31.4% |
| Aug 18, 1976 | Fell 3.6% to $108.10 | $108.10 | +1.2% | −4.3% | +10.5% | +21.4% | +27.2% | +33.3% |
| Jul 20, 1976 | Fell 5.6% to $107.75 | $107.75 | +4.9% | +5.9% | +0.3% | +7.8% | +22.7% | +34.3% |
| Jul 19, 1976 | Fell 3.1% to $114.15 | $114.15 | −5.6% | −1.0% | −1.8% | +1.4% | +16.6% | +26.1% |
| Jan 20, 1976 | Fell 3.3% to $124.60 | $124.60 | +0.2% | +1.3% | +5.3% | +2.6% | −8.4% | +6.8% |
| Jan 13, 1976 | Fell 3.4% to $132.00 | $132.00 | −1.3% | −5.6% | −0.9% | −3.3% | −7.7% | +0.2% |
| Oct 3, 1975 | Fell 4.0% to $138.90 | $138.90 | +1.3% | +2.4% | +3.1% | +0.1% | −7.1% | −16.5% |
| Sep 23, 1975 | Fell 5.7% to $128.75 | $128.75 | +3.1% | +9.7% | +12.2% | +8.0% | +3.4% | −6.9% |
| Sep 2, 1975 | Fell 3.7% to $149.25 | $149.25 | +0.7% | −0.5% | −3.9% | −7.4% | −12.0% | −30.3% |
| Sep 1, 1975 | Fell 3.0% to $155.00 | $155.00 | −3.7% | −1.8% | −8.9% | −10.3% | −14.6% | −32.8% |
| Jun 2, 1975 | Fell 3.1% to $161.75 | $161.75 | +2.2% | +2.2% | +2.9% | −1.2% | −13.1% | −22.4% |
| Jan 2, 1975 | Fell 6.2% to $175.00 Twice the threshold | $175.00 | −0.6% | +2.3% | +0.5% | +0.9% | −6.3% | −19.8% |
| Dec 31, 1974 | Fell 4.5% to $186.50 | $186.50 | −6.2% | −3.5% | −5.0% | −5.0% | −11.5% | −24.8% |
| Dec 4, 1974 | Fell 4.8% to $174.25 | $174.25 | +2.4% | +0.3% | +3.3% | +2.2% | −4.8% | −20.3% |
| Nov 20, 1974 | Fell 3.9% to $180.50 | $180.50 | +1.1% | +2.1% | +3.2% | +2.4% | −4.7% | −21.1% |
| Sep 17, 1974 | Fell 3.3% to $147.75 | $147.75 | +0.7% | −0.2% | +4.9% | +23.9% | +20.8% | −5.6% |
| Jul 10, 1974 | Fell 4.6% to $138.75 | $138.75 | −1.3% | +1.4% | +9.5% | +12.2% | +29.9% | +20.2% |
| Jul 2, 1974 | Fell 4.2% to $137.00 | $137.00 | −0.4% | +1.3% | +16.4% | +12.4% | +26.6% | +18.6% |
| May 31, 1974 | Fell 3.2% to $156.75 | $156.75 | −0.8% | −0.8% | −8.8% | −0.5% | +17.4% | +4.9% |
| May 28, 1974 | Fell 4.8% to $154.00 | $154.00 | +1.0% | +0.3% | −4.9% | −0.3% | +20.8% | +5.0% |
| May 8, 1974 | Fell 3.2% to $157.75 | $157.75 | +5.4% | +4.2% | −1.4% | −2.1% | +12.4% | +4.9% |
| Apr 8, 1974 | Fell 3.6% to $167.00 | $167.00 | +1.8% | +1.7% | −0.4% | −16.9% | −6.8% | +0.3% |
| Mar 5, 1974 | Fell 4.2% to $159.00 | $159.00 | +0.6% | +2.5% | +12.9% | +1.7% | −0.9% | +11.9% |
| Feb 28, 1974 | Fell 6.6% to $162.50 Twice the threshold | $162.50 | +3.1% | +2.2% | +6.5% | −3.5% | −4.0% | +10.6% |
| Jan 10, 1974 | Fell 3.2% to $120.00 | $120.00 | +1.7% | +7.0% | +19.2% | +44.4% | +14.2% | +48.5% |
| Nov 14, 1973 | Fell 7.1% to $90.00 Twice the threshold | $90.00 | +1.4% | +0.3% | +16.7% | +66.1% | +78.9% | +100.6% |
| Oct 1, 1973 | Fell 3.3% to $96.75 | $96.75 | +1.0% | +4.1% | +0.5% | +25.3% | +85.5% | +64.3% |
| Aug 21, 1973 | Fell 3.5% to $105.70 | $105.70 | −2.6% | +1.5% | −2.1% | −14.4% | +60.4% | +45.2% |
| Aug 14, 1973 | Fell 6.4% to $95.50 Twice the threshold | $95.50 | −1.6% | +10.7% | +5.0% | +1.5% | +55.9% | +62.6% |
| Aug 13, 1973 | Fell 4.4% to $102.00 | $102.00 | −6.4% | +7.4% | −1.7% | −4.9% | +43.1% | +52.5% |
| Aug 9, 1973 | Fell 3.3% to $110.00 | $110.00 | −3.0% | −6.4% | −6.6% | −10.9% | +33.2% | +42.0% |
| Jul 19, 1973 | Fell 4.4% to $114.25 | $114.25 | +2.6% | +4.6% | −9.0% | −10.8% | +20.3% | +26.3% |
| Jul 11, 1973 | Fell 3.3% to $119.00 | $119.00 | +1.7% | +0.4% | −7.6% | −13.0% | +4.8% | +18.5% |
| Jun 6, 1973 | Fell 3.6% to $121.50 | $121.50 | −2.5% | −4.9% | +4.5% | −13.2% | −13.6% | +29.4% |
| May 16, 1973 | Fell 3.2% to $106.50 | $106.50 | −2.1% | +3.1% | +12.7% | −11.7% | −15.5% | +51.2% |
| Mar 13, 1973 | Fell 3.0% to $80.00 | $80.00 | 0.0% | +3.1% | +13.6% | +47.2% | +25.4% | +111.3% |
| Feb 26, 1973 | Fell 5.1% to $80.70 | $80.70 | +3.7% | +4.1% | +11.5% | +40.3% | +33.0% | +105.7% |
| Sep 18, 1972 | Fell 6.5% to $61.25 Twice the threshold | $61.25 | +4.9% | +3.7% | +6.0% | +3.5% | +38.0% | +67.3% |
| Jun 9, 1972 | Fell 3.1% to $62.50 | $62.50 | −2.1% | −1.6% | +5.0% | +7.4% | +1.0% | +92.0% |
Why 3% one-day drops matter for gold
Sharp one-day falls in gold usually follow a surprise — a strong jobs report or inflation figure, a jump in the dollar or real yields, a hawkish Fed, forced selling when other markets crash, or margin increases on futures exchanges — or come after a fast run-up. Whether gold then recovers has depended on whether the cause was a one-off shock or the start of a change in trend.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to gold after it falls 3% in a day?
Since 1972, gold was higher 3 months after a one-day fall of 3% or more in 120 of 211 cases (57%), with a median move of +1.4% and an average of +4.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1972, it rose 54% of the time, with a median of +0.7%. The next day it was higher in 126 of 212 cases (median +0.3%).
Does gold always go up after a 3% one-day drop?
No. Three months later it was lower in 91 of 211 cases; the worst was −31.9% after January 22, 1980 and the best +74.1% after October 26, 1979. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did gold do after the most recent case?
After gold fell 3.3% to $3,899 on October 30, 2026, gold moved 0.0% by the next day. Longer periods will appear here once they have passed.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from gold's close on the day of the big move to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days later (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months), so the big day itself is not counted. A big day is a close-to-close move of 3% or more in the daily closing price. Big days often come in clusters, so many cases share the same weeks; the breakdown separates the first big day in a month from the ones that followed.
More Patterns
After Fed rate cutsAfter Fed rate hikesAfter the first Fed cutAfter the last Fed hikeWhen the Fed holds ratesAfter a record highAfter a 3% one-day riseAfter US electionsAfter presidential electionsAfter midterm elections Gold price history
Sources: Gold prices: the London price from 1968 and this site's daily US-dollar closes (COMEX futures) for recent years. Calculated by Corgano; data through October 30, 2026.