Gold vs Real Yields
The 10-year US real yield, the return on inflation-protected Treasury bonds (TIPS) after inflation, is 2.66% (23 October 2026), down 10 bp over the past month, and higher than in 99% of weeks since 2003. Gold is $3,998 an ounce.
Week to week, gold still leans the opposite way to real yields, though loosely: since 2022 the correlation of weekly changes is −0.25, about the same as the −0.29 of 2003–2021. What has changed is the level: on the 2006–2021 relationship, a 2.66% real yield would go with gold near $677; gold is about 6 times that.
Yields: US Treasury, close of 23 October 2026 · Gold: live spot, Oct 23, 2026, 17:00 ET
Gold vs the 10-year real yield
How the Relationship Changed
Weekly changes: gold's % move against the real yield's move in basis points (bp; 100 bp = 1 percentage point).
| Period | Real yield | Gold | Weekly correlation | Gold per +10 bp week |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003–2007 | 2.43% → 1.78% | $351 → $840 (+139%) | −0.22 weak | −0.53% |
| 2008–2012 | 1.56% → −0.73% | $863 → $1,655 (+92%) | −0.15 close to none | −0.32% |
| 2013–2018 | −0.55% → 0.99% | $1,648 → $1,280 (−22%) | −0.40 moderate | −0.85% |
| 2019–2021 | 0.91% → −1.04% | $1,283 → $1,829 (+43%) | −0.66 strong | −1.51% |
| 2022–2026 | −0.72% → 2.66% | $1,797 → $4,008 (+123%) | −0.25 weak | −0.51% |
Correlation runs from −1 (always moved in opposite directions) to +1 (always together). "Per +10 bp week": the average gold move in a week when the real yield rose 10 bp (a fall of 10 bp means roughly the opposite). Periods start and end with their first and last full week of data.
How closely they move: 52-week correlation of weekly changes
Why real yields matter for gold
Gold pays no interest. The real yield is what a safe US government bond pays after inflation, so it measures what you give up by holding gold instead. When it is high, bonds look attractive; when it is low or negative, as in 2020 and 2021 (as low as −1.16% in July 2021), the cost of holding gold disappears.
Nominal yield = real yield + breakeven inflation. A rise in the 10-year Treasury yield can come from either part. For gold, a rise in the real part (often driven by the Fed and the economy) has usually mattered more than a rise in expected inflation, which gold holders may welcome.
The dollar moves with them. Higher US real yields tend to lift the dollar, which makes gold dearer in other currencies. Many of the days on the why is gold up or down today page show this pattern.
Why the link broke after 2022
From −0.72% at the start of 2022 the real yield climbed to 3.15% by November 2008. On the old pattern gold should have fallen hard. Instead it went from $1,797 to $4,008.
The change is widely put down to central banks, which bought more than 1,000 tonnes a year in 2022, 2023 and 2024 according to the World Gold Council, roughly double their earlier pace. Many did so after Russia's reserves were frozen in 2022, preferring an asset they can hold themselves. Buyers who do not weigh bond yields (central banks, Chinese and Indian households, investors worried about government debt) have mattered more than before. See China's gold reserves.
The week-to-week link survived: in most weeks when real yields jump, gold still dips. So real yields still move gold day to day, but they no longer set its level.
This page describes how prices moved together in the past. It is not a forecast or investment advice.
Year by Year
Real yield at each year's last weekly close, and the weekly link within the year.
| Year | Real yield at year end | Change in the year | Gold in the year | Weekly correlation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 so far | 2.66% | +75 bp | −12.0% | −0.39 |
| 2025 | 1.91% | −37 bp | +73.0% | 0.31 |
| 2024 | 2.28% | +56 bp | +27.0% | −0.23 |
| 2023 | 1.72% | +14 bp | +13.4% | −0.59 |
| 2022 | 1.58% | +262 bp | −0.1% | −0.32 |
| 2021 | −1.04% | +2 bp | −3.5% | −0.53 |
| 2020 | −1.06% | −121 bp | +25.2% | −0.71 |
| 2019 | 0.15% | −84 bp | +18.3% | −0.65 |
| 2018 | 0.99% | +55 bp | −2.0% | −0.26 |
| 2017 | 0.44% | −6 bp | +13.6% | −0.73 |
| 2016 | 0.50% | −23 bp | +8.5% | −0.51 |
| 2015 | 0.73% | +15 bp | −11.3% | −0.39 |
| 2014 | 0.58% | −22 bp | −1.7% | −0.28 |
| 2013 | 0.80% | +153 bp | −26.5% | −0.30 |
| 2012 | −0.73% | −66 bp | +5.7% | −0.45 |
| 2011 | −0.07% | −107 bp | +10.2% | −0.23 |
| 2010 | 1.00% | −48 bp | +29.8% | −0.22 |
| 2009 | 1.48% | −55 bp | +25.8% | −0.29 |
| 2008 | 2.03% | +25 bp | +3.7% | 0.01 |
| 2007 | 1.78% | −63 bp | +32.2% | −0.08 |
| 2006 | 2.41% | +35 bp | +22.8% | −0.28 |
| 2005 | 2.06% | +38 bp | +18.2% | −0.06 |
| 2004 | 1.68% | −26 bp | +6.1% | −0.24 |
| 2003 | 1.94% | — | — | −0.41 |
A dash means a year without enough consecutive weekly data. Changes run from the previous year's last weekly close.
Watching real yields
Real yields move most around US inflation (CPI), jobs and Federal Reserve decisions: see the economic calendar and what gold did after past Fed decisions. The gold homepage shows each day's real-yield move next to the price.
Also on Corgano: silver vs real yields · Gold adjusted for inflation · Gold vs stocks, bitcoin and the dollar
Gold and Real Yields FAQ
What is a real yield?
The interest a bond pays after inflation. The US Treasury's inflation-protected bonds (TIPS) pay a real yield directly: their principal rises with US consumer prices. The 10-year TIPS yield is 2.66% (23 October 2026). A negative real yield, as in 2012–2013 and 2020–2021, means bonds pay less than inflation.
Why does gold usually fall when real yields rise?
Gold pays no interest. When real yields are high, holding gold means giving up a safe return above inflation, so some investors prefer bonds; when real yields are low or negative, that cost disappears. Real yields also tend to rise with a stronger dollar and a tighter Fed, which weigh on gold too.
Do real yields still drive gold?
From week to week, partly: since 2022 the correlation of weekly changes is −0.25 (weak), against −0.29 in 2003–2021, and gold has moved about −0.5% for each 10 bp rise in a week. But the level no longer matches: real yields are far higher than in 2021, yet gold is $3,998, against about $677 on the 2006–2021 relationship.
What is the breakeven inflation rate?
The 10-year nominal Treasury yield minus the 10-year real (TIPS) yield: the inflation rate at which the two bonds would pay the same. It is 2.34% (nominal 5.00% minus real 2.66%). Nominal yields can rise because real yields rise or because inflation expectations rise; for gold the real part has usually mattered more.
What does "if the 2006–2021 link had held" mean?
From 2006 to 2021, the level of gold and the level of the 10-year real yield moved closely together (correlation −0.92 on weekly data). The dashed line applies that relationship to each week's real yield. It shows how far gold has moved away from the old pattern; it is not a fair value or a forecast.
Do real yields affect bitcoin?
Less clearly than gold. Week to week, bitcoin's link to US real yields is close to none: its own swings are much larger. Over big shifts in interest rates it shows: in 2022, as real yields rose by more than 2 percentage points, bitcoin fell by about two thirds, along with technology stocks. Bitcoin prices: bitcoinprice.corgano.com.
Where does the data come from?
Real and nominal yields: the US Treasury's Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve and Par Yield Curve rates (public domain), since 2003. Gold: COMEX front-month futures daily closes. Weekly figures use the last close of each week. Updated every business day after the Treasury publishes.
Data and method
Yields: US Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Real Yield Curve Rates (TIPS) and Par Yield Curve Rates, 10-year, from 3 January 2003 (public domain). Gold: COMEX front-month futures daily closes. Weekly values are the last close of each week (1243 weeks); correlations use consecutive weeks only. The 2006–2021 relationship is a least-squares fit of the logarithm of the gold price on the real-yield level over those years (correlation −0.92, 835 weeks). Recomputed whenever either series gets a new day.