What happens to gold after it hits a record high?
Since 1971, gold was higher 3 months after a new all-time high after a year or more without one in 5 of 6 cases (83%), with a median move of +5.1% and an average of +7.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1971, it rose 55% of the time, with a median of +0.9%. The next day it was higher in 6 of 6 cases (median +1.9%).
Gold After Record-High Breakouts: Summary
Move from the close before the event. "All days" is every trading day since 1971, for comparison.
| 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cases | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| Median | +1.9% | +2.6% | +2.8% | +5.1% | +11.3% | +28.5% |
| Average | +1.7% | +2.3% | +2.9% | +7.3% | +11.3% | +28.4% |
| Higher in | 100% (6/6) | 83% (5/6) | 83% (5/6) | 83% (5/6) | 83% (5/6) | 67% (4/6) |
| Best | +3.2% Jul 28, 1978 | +4.4% Jan 3, 2008 | +8.0% Jan 3, 2008 | +20.4% Jul 28, 1978 | +21.3% Jul 28, 1978 | +60.9% Aug 9, 1971 |
| Worst | +0.2% Dec 1, 2023 | −1.2% Dec 1, 2023 | −1.9% Aug 9, 1971 | −0.4% Aug 9, 1971 | −1.8% Jul 24, 2020 | −4.8% Jul 24, 2020 |
| All days: median | 0.0% | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.9% | +2.7% | +5.9% |
| All days: higher in | 52% | 53% | 52% | 55% | 59% | 61% |
Periods overlap when events are close together (for example a run of cuts six weeks apart), so the 6- and 12-month figures share much of the same price history.
Average path over the next 3 months
% from the close before the event, average of all casesBreakdown
Median move and how often gold was higher, by type of case.
| Cases | n | 1 day | 1 month | 3 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All record-high breakouts | 6 | +1.9% 100% up | +2.8% 83% up | +5.1% 83% up | +28.5% 67% up |
| Every record close | 386 | +1.6% 84% up | +4.3% 78% up | +6.9% 77% up | +37.6% 85% up |
Every Case
Record-high breakouts since 1971, newest first. Gold price is the close before the event (US dollars per ounce).
| Date | Event | Gold before | 1 day | 1 week | 1 month | 3 months | 6 months | 12 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2023 | New record close $2,090 (first in 3 years) | $2,038 | +0.2% | −1.2% | +0.2% | +5.1% | +15.2% | +30.9% |
| Jul 24, 2020 | New record close $1,898 (first in 8 years) | $1,890 | +2.2% | +3.9% | +2.6% | +0.8% | −1.8% | −4.8% |
| Sep 16, 2009 | New record close $1,016 (first in over a year) | $996.00 | +2.3% | +1.4% | +5.8% | +12.8% | +10.9% | +26.0% |
| Jan 3, 2008 | New record close $858.85 (first in 27 years) | $846.75 | +1.0% | +4.4% | +8.0% | +5.1% | +10.7% | −0.4% |
| Jul 28, 1978 | New record close $201.30 (first in 3 years) | $194.05 | +3.2% | +3.9% | +2.9% | +20.4% | +21.3% | +57.6% |
| Aug 9, 1971 | New record close $43.94 (first in 2 years) | $42.56 | +1.6% | +1.2% | −1.9% | −0.4% | +11.8% | +60.9% |
Why record-high breakouts matter for gold
A first record after a long gap is a breakout: gold has cleared every earlier peak. Record highs tend to come in clusters during bull markets, so this page counts only the first record after at least a year without one, and gives the figures for every record day separately.
These are historical figures, not a forecast: past reactions don't predict future prices, and each case happened in a different economy. Not financial advice.
FAQ
What happens to gold after it hits a record high?
Since 1971, gold was higher 3 months after a new all-time high after a year or more without one in 5 of 6 cases (83%), with a median move of +5.1% and an average of +7.3%. Over all 3-month periods since 1971, it rose 55% of the time, with a median of +0.9%. The next day it was higher in 6 of 6 cases (median +1.9%).
Does gold always go up after a record high?
No. Three months later it was lower in 1 of 6 cases; the worst was −0.4% after August 9, 1971 and the best +20.4% after July 28, 1978. Other forces, such as the dollar, real yields, inflation, crises and central-bank buying, often matter more than the event itself.
What did gold do after the most recent case?
After new record close $2,090 (first in 3 years) on December 1, 2023, gold moved +0.2% by the next day, +0.2% after a month and +5.1% after three months.
How are these figures calculated?
Each move runs from gold's last daily close before the event to its close 1, 5, 21, 63, 126 and 252 trading days after the event day (1 day, 1 week and 1, 3, 6 and 12 months). The "1 day" figure therefore covers the event day and the next session, because Fed statements come out after the main US gold futures close. "All days" applies the same periods to every trading day since 1971, as a baseline.