Gold Trend Bands
At $3,998 an ounce, gold is in the Overheated band — 80% above its long-term trend of $2,218, and higher relative to the trend than about 91% of trading days since August 1971. Today the Overheated band runs from $3,407 to $4,415. The trend itself rises about 5.3% a year, against US inflation of 3.9% a year over the same period — about 1.4% a year faster than inflation.
Live price, Oct 23, 2026, 21:00 UTC · Trend and bands from daily closes since August 1971 to Oct 23, 2026
Gold price in its long-term trend bands since 1971
Today's band prices
| Band | Price range today | Share of days |
|---|---|---|
| Extreme | above $4,415 | 95–100% |
| Overheated now | $3,407 – $4,415 | 85–95% |
| Above trend | $2,684 – $3,407 | 70–85% |
| Upper trend | $2,239 – $2,684 | 50–70% |
| Lower trend | $1,924 – $2,239 | 30–50% |
| Below trend | $1,316 – $1,924 | 15–30% |
| Undervalued | $1,068 – $1,316 | 5–15% |
| Deep value | below $1,068 | 0–5% |
"Share of days": the slice of all trading days since August 1971 that fell in each band, measured against the trend on the day. Every band edge rises about 5.3% a year with the trend.
How the trend bands work
Over the long run gold has risen at a fairly steady rate, which shows as a straight line on a log chart. That line — about 5.3% a year since August 1971 — is the centre of the bands. The price swings far above and below it: the bottom band holds the cheapest 5% of days relative to the trend, the top band the most stretched 5%.
This is the idea behind the bitcoin "rainbow chart", applied to gold with our own fit and percentiles. Because the bands are fitted to the past, the price stays inside them by construction; a new extreme widens them, and every new close nudges the trend.
Compare gold adjusted for inflation, the gold price since 1968, the Dow/gold ratio and the silver trend bands.
Every stretch in the top two bands (Overheated and Extreme)
The top 15% of days relative to the trend — where gold is now.
| Entered | Left | Peak close | Peak ÷ trend | Lowest in the 3 years after the peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2025 | still in it | $5,318 Jan 29, 2026 | 2.49× | −25% low $3,992, Jul 2026 (so far) |
| Apr 28, 2011 | Feb 6, 2013 | $1,895 Sep 5, 2011 | 1.88× | −37% low $1,192, Jun 2013 |
| Apr 13, 1987 | Feb 2, 1988 | $500 Dec 14, 1987 | 1.70× | −31% low $346, Jun 1990 |
| Sep 19, 1986 | Oct 22, 1986 | $438 Oct 8, 1986 | 1.59× | −19% low $356, Sep 1989 |
| Jul 16, 1979 | Jun 11, 1984 | $850 Jan 21, 1980 | 4.37× | −65% low $297, Jun 1982 |
Stretches of 20 days or more in the band range; dips out of it shorter than 90 days are joined. "Peak ÷ trend": that close divided by the trend value on the day.
Every stretch in the bottom two bands (Deep value and Undervalued)
The bottom 15% of days relative to the trend.
| Entered | Left | Lowest close | Low ÷ trend | Highest in the 3 years after the low |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 4, 1997 | Aug 31, 2005 | $256 Apr 2, 2001 | 0.44× | +67% high $427, Apr 2004 |
| Aug 17, 1971 | Mar 14, 1973 | $40.65 Aug 31, 1971 | 0.32× | +342% high $180, Apr 1974 |
Stretches of 20 days or more in the band range; dips out of it shorter than 90 days are joined. "Low ÷ trend": that close divided by the trend value on the day.
Gold's band at the end of each year
| Year | Last close | Trend | Versus trend | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026latest close | $4,008 | $2,217 | +81% | Overheated |
| 2025 | $4,341 | $2,126 | +104% | Extreme |
| 2024 | $2,641 | $2,018 | +31% | Above trend |
| 2023 | $2,072 | $1,915 | +8% | Upper trend |
| 2022 | $1,826 | $1,818 | +0% | Lower trend |
| 2021 | $1,829 | $1,726 | +6% | Upper trend |
| 2020 | $1,895 | $1,639 | +16% | Upper trend |
| 2019 | $1,520 | $1,556 | −2% | Lower trend |
| 2018 | $1,278 | $1,477 | −13% | Below trend |
| 2017 | $1,306 | $1,401 | −7% | Lower trend |
| 2016 | $1,151 | $1,331 | −14% | Below trend |
| 2015 | $1,061 | $1,263 | −16% | Below trend |
| 2014 | $1,184 | $1,199 | −1% | Lower trend |
| 2013 | $1,202 | $1,138 | +6% | Upper trend |
| 2012 | $1,658 | $1,081 | +53% | Above trend |
| 2011 | $1,531 | $1,026 | +49% | Above trend |
| 2010 | $1,406 | $974 | +44% | Above trend |
| 2009 | $1,088 | $925 | +18% | Upper trend |
| 2008 | $870 | $878 | −1% | Lower trend |
| 2007 | $834 | $833 | +0% | Lower trend |
| 2006 | $632 | $791 | −20% | Below trend |
| 2005 | $513 | $751 | −32% | Below trend |
| 2004 | $436 | $713 | −39% | Below trend |
| 2003 | $416 | $677 | −38% | Below trend |
| 2002 | $347 | $642 | −46% | Undervalued |
| 2001 | $277 | $610 | −55% | Deep value |
| 2000 | $274 | $579 | −53% | Deep value |
| 1999 | $290 | $549 | −47% | Undervalued |
| 1998 | $288 | $522 | −45% | Undervalued |
| 1997 | $290 | $495 | −41% | Undervalued |
| 1996 | $369 | $470 | −21% | Below trend |
| 1995 | $387 | $446 | −13% | Lower trend |
| 1994 | $383 | $424 | −10% | Lower trend |
| 1993 | $392 | $402 | −3% | Lower trend |
| 1992 | $333 | $382 | −13% | Lower trend |
| 1991 | $353 | $362 | −3% | Lower trend |
| 1990 | $386 | $344 | +12% | Upper trend |
| 1989 | $399 | $327 | +22% | Above trend |
| 1988 | $410 | $310 | +32% | Above trend |
| 1987 | $484 | $294 | +64% | Overheated |
| 1986 | $389 | $279 | +39% | Above trend |
| 1985 | $327 | $265 | +23% | Above trend |
| 1984 | $308 | $252 | +22% | Above trend |
| 1983 | $382 | $239 | +60% | Overheated |
| 1982 | $457 | $227 | +101% | Extreme |
| 1981 | $398 | $215 | +85% | Overheated |
| 1980 | $590 | $204 | +188% | Extreme |
| 1979 | $512 | $194 | +164% | Extreme |
| 1978 | $226 | $184 | +23% | Above trend |
| 1977 | $165 | $175 | −6% | Lower trend |
| 1976 | $135 | $166 | −19% | Below trend |
| 1975 | $140 | $158 | −11% | Lower trend |
| 1974 | $187 | $150 | +25% | Above trend |
| 1973 | $112 | $142 | −21% | Below trend |
| 1972 | $64.90 | $135 | −52% | Deep value |
| 1971 | $43.62 | $128 | −66% | Deep value |
1971 starts on Aug 17, 1971. Bands use today's fit, so past years' bands can shift a little as new prices arrive. Click through to the gold price history for each year.
Gold Trend Bands: FAQ
What band is gold in today?
At $3,998, gold is in the "Overheated" band (band 7 of 8, counting from the cheapest). It is 80% above its long-term trend ($2,218) and higher relative to the trend than about 91% of days since August 1971.
Is gold overvalued right now?
Against its own long-term trend, gold is expensive: it is in the top 15% of its history, 80% above the trend. That is a description of the past, not a fair value: gold has stayed far from the trend for years at a time, and the trend line moves as new prices arrive. Before now, gold spent 4 stretches in the top two bands. Measured from each peak, the lowest price in the following three years was: 1980 (−65%), 1986 (−19%), 1987 (−31%), 2011 (−37%).
How are the gold trend bands calculated?
We fit a straight line to log10(price) against time — one trend growth rate — using every daily close since August 1971 (13,977 days; the line rises 5.34% a year, R² = 0.79). Each band edge is that line moved up or down by a percentile of the gaps between the price and the line: 0, 5, 15, 30, 50, 70, 85, 95 and 100%. The fit is redone whenever a new close arrives.
Why start in 1971?
On 15 August 1971 the United States stopped exchanging dollars for gold at $35 an ounce. Before that the gold price was mostly fixed by governments, so a market trend only makes sense from then on.
How fast does gold's long-term trend rise?
By this fit, about 5.3% a year in US dollars, while US consumer prices rose about 3.9% a year over the same period. See also gold adjusted for inflation.
When was gold furthest above and below its trend?
Furthest above: January 21, 1980, at $850 — 4.4 times the trend. Furthest below: August 31, 1971, at $40.65 — 32% of the trend.
Is this the same as the bitcoin rainbow chart?
It is built the same general way — coloured bands around a long-term trend on a log chart — but with a steady growth rate instead of bitcoin's power law, and with our own band edges and names. See the bitcoin trend bands and the silver trend bands.
The bands describe where the price has been relative to a smooth trend. They are not a forecast or a fair value, past patterns can break, and nothing here is investment advice.